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A comment on Censorship by big tech at the behest of the U.S. government?. Parent comment

Re:Censorship by big tech at the behest of the U.S. government? by nradov on Thursday September 22, 2022 @08:07PM (#32946270)
Ioannidis was obviously way off on the number of people to be infected, but his estimate on the fatality rate was actually fairly close. The CDC later calculated it as 0.6%.

https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab010

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

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Re:Censorship by big tech at the behest of the U.S. government? by lovich on Friday September 23, 2022 @12:53AM (#32948207)
100% difference in rate is fairly close? I get that these are small rates to begin with, but if your margin of error includes the entire range between 0 and your predication in the first place, does your prediction have any value?
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Re:Censorship by big tech at the behest of the U.S. government? by nradov on Friday September 23, 2022 @03:13PM (#32955892)
Being within a factor of 2 is fairly close for being early in the pandemic with very limited data. At the time, some other researchers had estimated a fatality rate in the 2% range which was even farther off.
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