You're assuming that this one is a three-year La Niña. You'll know whether this is a 3- or ≥4-year La Niña in about 18 months. The warmest seven years since records began have all been since 2015, so I wouldn't bet against a La Niña record now either.

But you can say that about anything.

How do you know the weather won’t be 50C tomorrow in NYC?

That would be a a very big surprise. But I could say "don't assume that today is the last day of this extremely hot weather, it might go on until tomorrow or even longer" and that would be much less remarkable. You don't know the end of an ongoing event until it's past.

I mean, a 4 or 5 year La Nina would also be a very big surprise.

4 year la Nina is a big surprise, but a 4 year la Nina given we've had 3 years already is a much smaller surprise

That’s not how probabilities work.

If I flip a coin and get heads 3 times in a row it doesn’t change the odds on the 4th flip.

It is how probabilities work. A plain example: The odds of flipping ten heads in a row are 1/1024, but if you've already flipped nine heads, the odds of flipping ten heads are 1/2.

Can you please tell me in detail how you're not agreeing with what I said? I said the exact same thing.

"If I flip a coin and get heads 3 times in a row it doesn’t change the odds on the 4th flip."

It's not the odds of the fourth flip, it's the difference between four flips and a fourth flip.

Look upstream, you'll find someone (you perhaps? I don't care who) who doesn't realise whether the current La Niña situation is equivalent to a fourth-flip or a four-flips situation. A common problem in statistics, in my experience: People sort of understand two statistical statements, but then apply the wrong one to the real-world situation they're in.

Temperature rising are more a gauge of urban sprawl then anything else

"always"

When they started measuring these things climate had already started.

s/y\ always/last\ three\ times\ it\

Might be clearer if you just write in English.

And to keep it snarky there is “ftfy”

I mean it's quite clear, but yeah a direct question would be easier for everyone to understand at a glance

s/\/\/\//\\\\\\g

Don't have to escape the slashes, non?

The back-slash escapes the space. And the training slash is missing.

Sorry that's what I meant. It's not necessary to escape the spaces.

s/Jesus Christ/Jesus, the only begotten son of God who came to Earth and died so that we may be saved from our sin,/g

Is a regex I ran as a young fellow in scriptures who had exhausted spacing as a means to hit minimum essay size.

Bad habit from vim, sorry :).

Ever since we started keeping track of it.