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Re:Triple-dip La Niña confirmed as BoM makes declaration by Arnt on Monday September 19, 2022 @03:11AM (#32895242)
It's not the odds of the fourth flip, it's the difference between four flips and a fourth flip.

Look upstream, you'll find someone (you perhaps? I don't care who) who doesn't realise whether the current La Niña situation is equivalent to a fourth-flip or a four-flips situation. A common problem in statistics, in my experience: People sort of understand two statistical statements, but then apply the wrong one to the real-world situation they're in.

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