For most of 2018-2020 it was between $4k and $10k.

If someone's looking to sell high, what's to stop them from selling at $20k, which was an all time high in December 2020? Why not wait for $80k instead of selling at $60k?

It's easy to see these opportunities in hindsight, but you can never be sure where the peak is.

I had no conviction that 60k would be the top. But I have a conviction that it'll be surpassed eventually.

> it'll be surpassed eventually

money has a time-value, the opportunity loss of investing it in other instruments. The longer you wait for a peak, the more that peak has to be for it to be worth it. When the value you would have had you invested elsewhere reaches your expected peak, you can officially say your strategy failed.

And what objective metrics are you using to back up your conviction that bitcoin is worth X?

Many people have conviction in their belief in God. That doesn't make the existence of God any more sound.

I may only buy when Fidelity and Blackrock say it is safe for retail, if at all.

Until then, I will let institutions take the risk and I will stick with my index fund.

I think even if they say it's safe, it wont make it so: there is fundamentaly no special value in bitcoin compared to the Thai Baht and nobody's rushing to buy those.