Re:Futurist prediction methods and accuracy
by bombcar on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @05:20PM
(#32830330)
And if you make a well-defined prediction, you should be able to work backwards from it to smaller predictions over intervening years.
If, say, I were to predict that 40% of intercity travel would be via high speed rail in 2100 in California, I should be able to either argue why high speed rail would spring out of nowhere in 2099 or have a plausible story as to how it might grow.
If, say, I were to predict that 40% of intercity travel would be via high speed rail in 2100 in California, I should be able to either argue why high speed rail would spring out of nowhere in 2099 or have a plausible story as to how it might grow.