European natural gas imports and storage reserves

Re:European natural gas imports and storage reserves by jltsiren on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @01:02PM (#32827047)

Based on Russian performance at the start of the invasion, a similar force would have overrun the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are small and geographically isolated. They are surrounded by Russia, Belarus, and the Baltic Sea. Any attempt to support and supply them would have to go through the small gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus, or over the Baltic Sea, which would be heavily contested.

The geographic situation largely explains why the Baltic States support the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland so strongly, and why Russia is opposed to it. With Sweden and Finland in NATO, the Baltic Sea will become NATO's internal sea. NATO would likely have naval and air superiority over it, which would keep supply lines open and give them a chance to defend the Baltic States with conventional weapons.

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Re:European natural gas imports and storage reserves by jopsen on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @03:05PM (#32828841)

Wouldn't any Russian force driving around in the Baltic states be easy targets for NATO cruise missiles and air power?

None of which NATO countries has offered to use in Ukraine.

I think logistics by railway would be problematic if NATO allies launched a few thousand cruise missiles.

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Re:European natural gas imports and storage reserves by jltsiren on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @04:14PM (#32829635)

That's the benefit of Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

Air power is of little use if your forces don't have access to the relevant area. The Baltic states are surrounded by Russian bases and air defenses, while NATO bases are far away. Right now, Kaliningrad is effectively a fortress that separates the Baltic states from the rest of NATO. Sweden and Finland give NATO air forces the option to bypass Kaliningrad and operate from bases that are closer to the Baltic states.

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Re:European natural gas imports and storage reserves by jopsen on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @05:14PM (#32830254)

There was already Norway, Denmark and Poland fairly close by (close in terms of air travel).

But yes, Sweden and Finland in NATO is nice. Also for the fact that NATO not intervening in aggression against Sweden or Finland is hard to imagine, so getting papers on the marriage is nice for all parties involved.

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Re:European natural gas imports and storage reserves by jltsiren on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @06:05PM (#32830783)

The idea is that if Sweden and Finland are not members of NATO, their airspace would be closed to NATO air forces in a NATO–Russia conflict. Then the only way to reach Baltic airspace would be flying past Kaliningrad.

Also, as far as I understand, the combat radius fighter jets is quite short. It's something like 500 to 1200 km, depending on aircraft type and weapons load. Having bases 100 or 200 km closer is already a significant advantage.

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Re:European natural gas imports and storage reserves by KptMarchewa on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @06:42PM (#32831125)

The fighter jets can refuel during flight, which is a routine operation.

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Re:European natural gas imports and storage reserves by jltsiren on Tuesday September 13, 2022 @08:11PM (#32831737)

Tankers won't help here. The problem is that NATO fighters would effectively have to fly over Russia before they can reach the Baltic states. The area where tankers can operate safely already has plenty of NATO airbases.

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