News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Apple’s next big thing: A business model change by SkyPuncher on Monday September 12, 2022 @01:10PM (#32813331)
This has been happening across nearly every weather source I've been using. My hypothesis is either:

* Climate change is causing problems with forecasting models

* Forecasting models changed, which has introduce unexpected edge cases

Re:Apple’s next big thing: A business model change by msmith on Monday September 12, 2022 @04:04PM (#32816103)
This study claims that there was a decrease in weather prediction accuracy caused by the reduction in commercial flights due to Covid. Maybe there are still some lingering effects from that?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200717101026.h...

Re:Apple’s next big thing: A business model change by SkyPuncher on Monday September 12, 2022 @04:23PM (#32816371)
Wow! This is extremely interesting!

While this is confirmation bias, this reflects almost identically with the timeframe in which the forecasts became significantly worse in my area.

Re:Apple’s next big thing: A business model change by type0 on Monday September 12, 2022 @08:00PM (#32819015)
Re:Apple’s next big thing: A business model change by Applejinx on Monday September 12, 2022 @01:40PM (#32813928)
The former is going to be literally true on the grounds that climate change is increasing chaos in the system, hence unpredictability increases strikingly.

I'm not sure this happens on the time scale of 'app got acquired', though. It's absolutely going to increase year by year, and if you'd got used to how it was three years ago and didn't notice some of the outlier events, you might be shocked at the new normal.

Climate change absolutely will cause problems with any conceivable forecasting model because you can't encapsulate chaos, only map its expected potential outcomes: and the nasty truth is that energy is fed into the system, those potential outcomes blow up exponentially. Not even slightly linear. So that's what we're seeing.

Re:Apple’s next big thing: A business model change by bombcar on Monday September 12, 2022 @01:52PM (#32814137)
I've noticed that the "rain starting in your area" alerts are close to correct - and spot-on for the local airport.

So I'd not be surprised if they somehow switched their data source to be not as granular as it once was.