Red-blue split, roughly. Our federal bureaucracy has become a legislature with no accountability. In that regard we are a late stage empire.

Most states are not clearly red or blue. Most all of the big cities are blue, most of the countryside is red. Even texas is not 65% conservative on voting; less than 5% shift and it would be a tossup or democratic. Maybe a few states like wyoming would go clearly one way but a vast amount of states would not be able to all go one way (think of california). So the outcome of a real us split would be chaos, terror, mixed states.

I'm in a very blue state, but the rural population (30% maybe) is a different world of wealth, education, politics, population density. We subsidize their economy by building infrastructure there they can't afford (like roads and bridges). This causes endless arguing at the state level. I think a lot of the states are like this with varying % in the two groups.