> To me, it seems an important distinction whether "excess" cash is going towards buying elastic goods/services (peloton cycles, fancy grills, RTX3080 for gaming, etc) or simply fighting over shortages of inelastic goods (baby formula, bacteriostatic water, shipping space, gasoline, etc).

I agree, but I think I lean in the opposite direction as you do.

It's relatively easy to produce more Pelotons, grills, and (to a lesser extent) RTX3080s.

It's difficult to produce more wheat and houses. When the price of housing is going up nationwide faster than ~4%, that's probably time to increase interest rates, because supply elasticity won't be coming to the rescue. By the time it filters into rent prices, it's too late and you're doomed to overshoot.