> In contrast, Arizona is relatively poor and landlocked. It seems like they're far more likely to be the canary in the coal mine.

This isn’t a great bet. Arizona had to solve this problem long ago and already has a good water rights system to cut out the most egregious users quickly as the Colorado river goes through its drought categories. Farmers aren’t guaranteed effectively free water with seniority over others willing to pay like they are in California.

Farming in Arizona might die, but the people are more than rich enough to continue residential usage with the large portion AZ gets of the Colorado river.

> In contrast, Arizona is relatively poor and landlocked. It seems like they're far more likely to be the canary in the coal mine.

<<< New Mexico waves >>>

ps. NM is much much poorer than AZ (but also has less people)

Desalination is an ecological catastrophe, and it costs over $1,000 per acre-foot, and that's before the cost of water delivery to the end user. For comparison, my local irrigation district charges ~$150 per acre-foot, delivered.

Desalination doesn't work for California.

1) You can make it not be a catastrophe.

2) People that really want a green lawn will pay.

Arizona is a fast growing state but it's hardly a fair comparison. A better comparison would be Texas or Florida, which people on the coasts seem to turn their noses up at.

Both are growing at roughly 3 times the pace of California, with Texas predicted to surpass California's GDP in under 20 years (Perhaps faster, if things accelerate). If you look at the East Coast situation, e.g. Florida and New York, it's much more damning, FL's population surpassed NY only a few years ago, and its GDP will likely surpass NY in less than 5 years (1.2T vs 1.9T). Not sure what will happen with the water situation but it seems like the final nail in the coffin of bad policies that have sent CA into a downward spiral.

"Both are growing at roughly 3 times the pace of California"

I'm sorry, where is that number coming from? 3x growth anywhere in the USA vs California would be majestically impressive!

I found:

Growth : (1yr, 3yr, 5yr)

Texas : 7.35%, 2.24%, 12.32%

California : 7.17%, 8.06%, 16.69%

Florida : 6.45%, 8.04%, 14.91%

Is the 3x growth in a different statistic?

https://www.deptofnumbers.com/gdp/california/

https://www.deptofnumbers.com/gdp/florida/

https://www.deptofnumbers.com/gdp/texas/

GP was talking about population, not GDP. Do you have those numbers?

I don't think they were trying to say Arizona is the alternative California people would move to. I think they were saying it's the state that's going to feel the effects of prolonged drought first, because they have less access to seawater to desalinate and fewer resources to try and buy what little water is left compared to California.

Exactly, thank you.