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Re:I Choose Optimism by Comevius on Thursday August 18, 2022 @07:01AM (#32507811)
Things did get better globally, even if marginally for most, but at what price. If I take out a loan to live it up for a year, but then have no way of paying it back, because I haven't invested the money into anything substantial did things really got better for me? With the Industrial Revolution, and later the Green Revolution we began accumulating a debt. All the gains we made were borrowed against the future. This is not progress, this is ignorance.
Re:I Choose Optimism by neilwilson on Sunday August 21, 2022 @11:07PM (#32546869)
"If I take out a loan to live it up for a year, but then have no way of paying it back, because I haven't invested the money into anything substantial did things really got better for me?"

Yes. Because those you spent it with must have, or you wouldn't have been able to buy anything with it. Therefore you caused things to happen that wouldn't otherwise have happened.

Debt is one of human's greatest inventions. It's what allows us to ensure that the underlying currency - human labour time - isn't wasted because there is no call to use it today.

Instead we have a currency - "here's a pig, owe me one" that causes a surplus to arise. Some people won't be able to fulfil that promise in which case it will, in advanced societies, be cancelled. That's what bankruptcy is for. The assets you used to secure the loan are then transferred to others. However the use of labour time in others to create the capacity to generate a surplus remains somewhere down the induced transaction chain.

Debt is the magic by which money is created on demand. That causes information to be transmitted down the supply chain that causes the capacity to make more to arise.

Which is why those societies that use debt are more advanced than those that chose to outlaw its use. They ended up with fewer days wasted in aggregate and more capacity to produce.

Most people fulfil their promises since it is inherent in human society to do right by others. And quite a lot of people like holding the assets that represent the debt as a status symbol of how well they have done - whether they can actually really call in those promises or not.

Re:I Choose Optimism by philipashlock on Sunday August 21, 2022 @11:34PM (#32547019)
Ecological and resource extractive debt is not magic, they have limits and externalities that most financial systems don't fully account for in their balance sheets.
Re:I Choose Optimism by NovaVeles on Monday August 22, 2022 @01:08AM (#32547585)
This is something I have to remind people of all the time - usually I just get blank stares.

Forget the dollars and cents tokens on wealth, they can and are manipulated but intentionally and unintentionally. How much energy and resources that gets us do we have? That is the real currency we have to work with.

All the debt in the world means nothing if we cannot produce the goods with the token we produced assuming the resources would be there.

Re:I Choose Optimism by neilwilson on Monday August 22, 2022 @06:50AM (#32549710)
If I have a debt of £50 and you have the corresponding £50 asset that you like to look at, then you don't need any material amount of energy to get to that state of happiness.

I have to remind people all the time of a simple truth - there isn't a one to one relationship between money and stuff.

And money isn't real. It's largely an illusion. At best a social relation.

Re:I Choose Optimism by peteradio on Monday August 22, 2022 @10:32AM (#32551951)
If I mortgage the singular life supporting planet we are aware of and don't pay back the debt...
Re:I Choose Optimism by neilwilson on Tuesday August 23, 2022 @01:37AM (#32560815)
Then whoever gave you the debt will be bankrupt, and whoever you paid the debt to will be rich.

Money doesn't stop at its first use. And debt is nothing more than allowing you to spend the real thing without selling it first.

Re:I Choose Optimism by tick_tock_tick on Monday August 22, 2022 @04:09AM (#32548653)
> How much energy and resources that gets us do we have?

Millions of years worth..... Like really of course you get blank stares it's not an issue that exists.

Re:I Choose Optimism by _benedict on Monday August 22, 2022 @05:58AM (#32549381)
Millions of years of what? We have maybe a few hundred years of helium if we’re generous with our assumptions and we’re literally squirting that into balloons and letting it float away into the atmosphere and off into space. It’s literally an unrecoverable loss.

This is just one of the many resource limits we’re facing as a species, and this is how we address it today.

Re:I Choose Optimism by alexvoda on Monday August 22, 2022 @08:15AM (#32550276)
Since you brought helium into discussion, why do we fill party balloons with helium?

Just how great is the risc of filling them with hidrogen? I know it's flamable and leaks through many materials. But in the context of party balloons just how great is that risc? The quantity is very small. And no ones life depends on it. And in the case of fire, that quantity would burn almost instantly. I doubt it would even have the time to ignite anything other than another flamable gas.

Re:I Choose Optimism by wizofaus on Monday August 22, 2022 @09:19AM (#32550926)
Has anyone actually seriously worked out how much party balloons contribute to the loss of helium from the atmosphere? And isn't helium an expected waste product from fusion reactors? Not saying it's not an issue but I'm not convinced it's worth getting too upset over just yet.
Re:I Choose Optimism by _benedict on Monday August 22, 2022 @10:28AM (#32551888)
https://www.helium-one.com/helium-market/

Apparently 8%. But all of these industries waste it unnecessarily, due to our failing to price in or consider the future scarcity.

Helium as a waste product of fusion reactors is such a pipe dream, and will produce such tiny volumes should that ever happen, that it is not a remotely realistic solution to the problem.

Re:I Choose Optimism by ben_w on Monday August 22, 2022 @04:34PM (#32556843)
Out of curiosity I put the numbers into Wolfram Alpha, and it suggests that even if 100% of our current power (all power not just electricity) needs came from fusing deuterium and tritium into helium, those reactors would make only about 5.3% of our current helium consumption.
Re:I Choose Optimism by wizofaus on Monday August 22, 2022 @12:28PM (#32553716)
That's all "lifting balloons" - I'd think the majority of which would be for weather balloons etc.? You're probably right about He from fusion reactors but if we have 100s of years to solve it who knows.
Re:I Choose Optimism by _benedict on Monday August 22, 2022 @03:58PM (#32556405)
Who knows is exactly the problem. Hand waving this away for future generations to deal with is exactly the problem. If we can’t imagine how we’ll solve it, we should probably strive not to create the mess.
Re:I Choose Optimism by wizofaus on Monday August 22, 2022 @04:13PM (#32556594)
But we do know that plenty of other current human activities, primarily around extracting stuff from deep underground and pumping it into the atmosphere, are going to cause huge issues for even just our kid's generation, with no realistic technology likely to be developed quickly enough to solve it(*). If we hypothetically needed to use up the earth's remaining helium to fix that I'd support doing so. Running out of helium isn't expected to introduce a risk of making the planet largely uninhabitable, as far as I'm aware.

(*) I'm more or less convinced that such a miracle technology is the only hope we have of avoiding catastrophic change. I'm baffled why there's not massively more funding into researching potential geoengineering solutions, given the stakes. Even fossil fuel companies would benefit!

Re:I Choose Optimism by _benedict on Monday August 22, 2022 @11:56PM (#32560303)
I’m really not sure what point you’re making. Where has anyone proposed a climate solution by using all of the world’s helium?

What we do use helium for today are things like MRI machines that are medically invaluable, and we do so wastefully potentially denying future generations this technology.

Even if we eventually find alternatives, it may be inferior or we may otherwise deny them technological advantages of similar importance that would be more accessible through access to helium.

The problem is that today Helium is cheap enough we’re happy to boil an MRI machine’s worth off into space for a child’s birthday party.

Climate change is simply another face of the same coin of indifference to the costs we confer on others.

Re:I Choose Optimism by wizofaus on Tuesday August 23, 2022 @04:22AM (#32561961)
Maybe someone will invent Helium fission power! I did say "hypothetical". I don't think we disagree, I just consider other ecological challenges far more serious than running out of Helium.

Apparently there's plenty on the moon...

Re:I Choose Optimism by ben_w on Monday August 22, 2022 @08:19AM (#32550312)
What do you have in mind as a "millions of years" power source?

At current rates, fossil fuels will last a few centuries, nuclear a few millennia.

Although geothermal would last for geological timescales, the estimated maximum output only covers current electricity use (~2 TW, well short of the ~17 TW total power use, and ideally we'd increase the minimum power use per person to get closer to European or American levels rather than keeping our current distribution).

The kinetic rotational energy of the earth would last us 400 million years.

Sun will last a few billion, but then we're no longer talking about extractive technologies.

Re:I Choose Optimism by mdemare on Monday August 22, 2022 @05:23AM (#32549168)
While there is a vast amount of resources below us, the CO2 above us that's causing us so much trouble would form a layer of just 3.8mm (0.15 inch) of dry ice if it was all deposited on Earth's surface as a solid.
Re:I Choose Optimism by xmprt on Monday August 22, 2022 @01:39AM (#32547751)
I'm not sure I follow your argument. I agree that debt is important for society to function however taking on debt that you don't invest into yourself is literally ruinous and not in a hypothetical way - tons of people's lives have been destroyed by getting into too much debt that they weren't able to pay back.

> Yes. Because those you spent it with must have, or you wouldn't have been able to buy anything with it

This just means that the people that you paid have better lives but you haven't explained how things are better are better for yourself unless you have some way of paying that debt back.

Re:I Choose Optimism by neilwilson on Monday August 22, 2022 @06:54AM (#32549744)
You must have a way of paying the debt back, or you wouldn't have been able to obtain the resource you did on a promise.

The people doing the deal with you accepted your promise to repay. They don't do that for the fun of it.

Debt is just a way of spending things without selling them first. You can either borrow against your car to spend it, or you can sell the car to spend it.

Either way if you consume rather than buying another car, then you end up with no car.

Re:I Choose Optimism by davisoneee on Monday August 22, 2022 @08:31AM (#32550418)
The financial crash would like to have a word with you.

Many people gave 'resources' to people who couldn't afford the debt, because with many layers of obfuscation, and perverse incentives for mortgage providers, they made it look like many more people could afford it than actually could.

Further...payday loans...loan sharks...people get money for things they can't afford, and can't realistically pay back, all the time.

Re:I Choose Optimism by neilwilson on Tuesday August 23, 2022 @01:39AM (#32560826)
And bankruptcy sorts all that out. That's why we have it as the reset mechanism.

Capitalism without the threat of bankruptcy is like Catholicism without the threat of hellfire.

Re:I Choose Optimism by marssaxman on Tuesday August 23, 2022 @06:24AM (#32562726)
It sounds like you are saying, "Don't worry, if we can't manage to pay back the loans we have taken against the planet's nonrenewable or slowly-renewing resources, we can just declare bankruptcy and start over", which is not as reassuring as you seem to imagine.

Bankruptcy works on a small scale, as an act of grace, because the bankrupt party can bootstrap themselves back into productivity using the functional economy around them.

When too many people go bankrupt at once, the economy crashes.

When the whole planet runs out of ecological credit, and we all go bankrupt at once, where are we going to find another civilization to bootstrap from?

All the easy energy is gone, forever. There will never be another coal- or oil-driven industrial revolution on planet Earth. If we reach bankruptcy on the scale of a planetary ecosystem, it will most likely be permanent, as far as Homo sapiens is concerned.

Re:I Choose Optimism by davisoneee on Tuesday August 23, 2022 @11:06AM (#32565970)
Whether bankruptcy is necessary to capitalism is irrelevant to your point

> You must have a way of paying the debt back, or you wouldn't have been able to obtain the resource you did on a promise.

I am stating that some people _don't_ have a way of paying the debt back, and yet they have been loaned to, incurring debt, and thus ruined (as the parent you were originally replying to suggests)

Re:I Choose Optimism by xmprt on Tuesday August 23, 2022 @02:10AM (#32561005)
> You must have a way of paying the debt back, or you wouldn't have been able to obtain the resource you did on a promise

This simply isn't true. On small scales, people lose their businesses and families declare bankruptcy. That's why I said this isn't a hypothetical. And on a large scale it causes financial collapses if many people go bankrupt at once.

Re:I Choose Optimism by neilwilson on Tuesday August 23, 2022 @04:56AM (#32562192)
It simply is true. But under capitalism plans don't always work out. That's how it is supposed to work. Things are tried and some fail. That way is progress and productivity.

We have system autostabilisers that rebalance the ship when the private sector has a blow up.

Bankruptcy is the reset mechanism. It's a mechanism that actually works, unlike the debtors' prisons we had previously.