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Re:Is El Salvador Up? by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday August 16, 2022 @03:30PM (#32487639)
> So they've blown about 1% of their annual budget on BTC. Far from catastrophic

The Bitcoin decision is single handedly marching San Salvador into a currency crisis [1]. Food and fuel are among their top imports, so that likely leads to political crisis.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32487630

Re:Is El Salvador Up? by defgeneric on Tuesday August 16, 2022 @03:49PM (#32487899)
> The Bitcoin decision is single handedly marching San Salvador into a currency crisis

This is an extreme oversimplification. The issue is that decision to make Bitcoin legal tender has put El Salvador at odds with the IMF. Arguably they would have been at odds anyway, and the IMF is simply using this issue as leverage (as well as to foment internal political divisions). The issue is primarily political (not economic!), especially considering the small amount of money invested in relation to the country's overall finances.

Re:Is El Salvador Up? by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday August 16, 2022 @04:17PM (#32488273)
> that decision to make Bitcoin legal tender has put El Salvador at odds with the IMF

It also prompted downgrades from ratings agencies, credit spreads to widen in the international bond markets, took bilateral bailouts from e.g. the World Bank or the U.S. (its primary remittance and export provider) off the table, et cetera.

> small amount of money invested in relation to the country's overall finances

$100mm in a $29bn economy is a lot. Scaled to America's $24.9tn [1] GDP, it's $85bn. It's also something like 4% of their FX reserves and close to 10% of the money they're asking the IMF for.

[1] https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/gdp2q22_adv....

Re:Is El Salvador Up? by toomuchtodo on Tuesday August 16, 2022 @04:15PM (#32488231)
When your lender of last resort tells you to jump, you say “how high?” or starve. El Salvador needs the IMF more than the IMF needs El Salvador.

It’s political in the sense that the IMF doesn’t want to throw fiat at an irresponsible government that is gambling away sovereign dollars. Good money after bad and all that.

Re:Is El Salvador Up? by ccooffee on Tuesday August 16, 2022 @11:52PM (#32492128)
"Appease the moneyed classes or starve" doesn't seem like a very just way to run the world. Granted, the IMF isn't the arbiter of justice, but punishing the PEOPLE of El Salvador for the actions of the local ruling classes is just cruel. Even if the "financial trouble" could lead to "regime change", we're obscuring the horrors for the citizenry behind some smarmy journalism words.
Re:Is El Salvador Up? by toomuchtodo on Wednesday August 17, 2022 @12:16AM (#32492279)
So stage a coup and put adults in charge instead of a crypto bro gambling away a nation’s sovereign funds. I agree the IMF should assist the El Salvadoran people, but that’s not currently an option being presented.
Re:Is El Salvador Up? by tasuki on Wednesday August 17, 2022 @03:10AM (#32493209)
> So stage a coup

Have you ever stayed a coup? It is very very difficult. And historically, the consequences of coups have been mixed.

It's like people saying the Russians should just overthrow Putin...

Re:Is El Salvador Up? by neither_color on Tuesday August 16, 2022 @04:18PM (#32488285)
single handedly marching San Salvador into a currency crisis

How can they be having a currency crisis when they don't have a currency? It's more accurate to say they're headed for insolvency or something.

Re:Is El Salvador Up? by JumpCrisscross on Tuesday August 16, 2022 @04:43PM (#32488639)
> How can they be having a currency crisis when they don't have a currency?

You're right. It's technically a balance of payments crisis.

At the brink, and from outside, they model similarly. Deposits in El Salvador banks start behaving like a currency as international depositors haircut against the risk of seizure and capital controls. From inside, they're different as the long inflationary phase of a currency crisis is truncated to a default and reset.

Re:Is El Salvador Up? by imtringued on Tuesday August 16, 2022 @06:54PM (#32490064)
This makes it sound as if El Salvador should have introduced something similar to the Chiemgauer in Germany. Basically it is a local currency that keeps money within the region, it has a circulation safeguard which is supposed to prevent stagnation which is how most complementary currencies die. The interesting part however is that it is 100% backed by euros. The circulation safeguard and the trade in fee make the Chiemgauer just a tiny bit less valuable than actual euros. If El Salvador implemented such a system it would be dollarized but at the same time have a slightly devalued exchange rate vs the dollar which discourages imports and encourages exports to the US.

What El Salvador is experiencing is basically the North American equivalent of the Greek economic crisis.