We're just biding our time until 2050, at which point we will unlock the ability to build industrial scale fusion energy plants.

I would love that. But honestly, I would be surprised if fusion energy will be economically feasible before 2100. If ever.

I'd bet on that. I'd give Commonwealth Fusion Systems alone 40% in the next 20 years.

More on recent fusion developments: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-f...

I hope you win! I usually get my reality checks from Sabine Hossenfelder, who a while back explained that all these fusion claims are wildly optimistic. You can find her video here: https://youtu.be/LJ4W1g-6JiY

I am no scientist, so it is hard for me to know if team optimistic or team pessimistic is right. But even if it is the latter, I think we should put more money and research on it!

The video isn't nuts, but it's mostly focused on clearing up a common misconception around what "break even" means. It discusses how ITER is not going to be powering the grid in 2025 (strong agree) but I don't see any discussion of the commercialization projects (of which Commonwealth is the strongest) or discussion of timescales anywhere near 2100.

> Sabine Hossenfelder

FYI she's largely been debunked as a fear monger. She swings the pendulum too far in the other direction when reality is somewhere in between.

Sources pls?

According to SimCity, the year is 2050 on the dot.

Just watch out for any stray solar microwave beams in the mean time.

Fusion will never be cheaper then fission.

Unless maybe if somebody figures out aneutronic fusion but we are nowhere close yet.

Would be interesting if solar beats it out. Both honestly are fusion energy.

One of my elderly relatives commented last week that he has been hearing that the new experimental results will promise reliable fusion plants in less than a decade ... Since 1960

(He used to be one of those guys inside an ICBM silo during the Cold war)

The private fusion companies still have ambitious (and most likely unrealistic) goals

So did the Moller Air Car.

Moller at least had a brief prototype that hovered.

There are probably real scientists, engineers, and approaches, but it's probably about fleecing dumb investors at a fundamental level.

I maintain that we would be further along with fusion had we not kneecapped fission into a regulatory abyss.