How does Dobbs align is with Poland? Do you think it will result in a national ban on abortion in the US?

It has already aligned several whole states with Poland on the issue; this isn't an abstraction: the population of US states with bans comparable to Poland exceeds that of Poland.

That’s a stated goal of many serving congress people.

If things swing a particular way you might see a national ban bill next year.

I don’t know how likely that is but it’s certainly a position many Republicans take.

Many politicians in Europe also take that position—legalized abortion is a delicate compromise in most EU countries. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who briefly succeeded Merkel as leader of the CDU, also staunchly opposed abortion, as did many in her party. In fact, in Germany’s high court has recognized a right to life under the Basic Law that begins at conception. Abortion is legalized in the country under the theory that the constitutional violation doesn’t necessarily need to be punished.

A national abortion ban can’t get 60 votes in the Senate. We’ll end up with a mix of laws at the state level, just like the EU. Public polling shows that Americans favor similar laws to Europe—abortions being illegal after the first trimester except under various exceptions. https://www.vox.com/2022/7/13/23204957/roe-wade-abortion-dob... (“At least three national surveys have shown majorities of Americans favor banning abortion after 15 weeks, even as those same respondents said they wanted to see Roe upheld.”).

What the public wants and what the legislature’s provide are fairly far from each other on this issue.

The minute the Dobbs decision came down several states laws changed to dramatically limit abortion. Much more limited than the national polls suggest are the desired outcomes. Indiana of all places had to rush a change on the books to make sure their ban wasn’t too limiting.

In that climate, and the way midterm elections go, I think a national ban is a definite possibility.

Meanwhile, an assault weapons ban is very popular with the public, but is effectively impossible to get passed.

Structurally, this Supreme Court is more activist than the public wants and is misaligned with the majority opinions (though I’ll grant that’s not the courts mandate).

> A national abortion ban can’t get 60 votes in the Senate.

David Shor: "Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition, then the modal outcome for 2024 is Donald Trump winning a filibuster-proof trifecta with a minority of the vote." (emphasis his)

(And, of course, the GOP could weaken the filibuster with 51 senators.)