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Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by bryanlarsen on Sunday August 07, 2022 @06:30PM (#32380579)
If we had stayed on the path we were on, it was a path to over 5 degrees of warming.

If we keep our commitments, like the ones various nations have made to ban gas cars by 2035, we'll limit our warming to about 2.5 degrees.

The difference between 2.5 degrees and 5 degrees is the difference between a really bad time and an apocalypse.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by tsimionescu on Sunday August 07, 2022 @06:39PM (#32380628)
But no one is going to keep those commitments, few if any countries are even close, and many are not even on any real path.

Not to mention, we're taking about 2.5 degrees of warning by 2100. But the world didn't end there. If we don't go to 0 emissions (and there is currently no realistic path to that that any country even remotely accepts - massive degrowth of the economy), we will eventually reach 5 or more degrees of warming, it will just be a little later than 2100.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by bryanlarsen on Sunday August 07, 2022 @06:57PM (#32380755)
These are concrete commitments, which countries do have a fairly good track record of keeping. The 2.5 does not require the nebulous "40% below 2010 emissions" type of commitments which countries have a really bad track record of keeping.

A country saying "We will do X" is much more likely to do X than a country that says "We will achieve Y" will achieve Y.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by marginalia_nu on Sunday August 07, 2022 @10:45PM (#32381984)
> But no one is going to keep those commitments, few if any countries are even close, and many are not even on any real path.

The effects get harder and harder to ignore with each summer that passes. It's easy to dismiss a hypothetical future scenario, harder to miss noticing 45 C heatwaves.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by tsimionescu on Monday August 08, 2022 @03:37AM (#32383169)
Sure, but unfortunately that also means that people will tend to spend more energy to actually live comfortably with those conditions...
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by ikt on Sunday August 07, 2022 @09:18PM (#32381542)
> But no one is going to keep those commitments, few if any countries are even close, and many are not even on any real path

Where are you seeing this? In the last few years alone there has been hundreds of billions if not trillions put into renewable energy.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by boplicity on Sunday August 07, 2022 @09:34PM (#32381632)
The only number to really keep track of is the rate of fossil fuel extraction. It slumped during the peak of COVID, but is on a steady upward trajectory. Even though we're creating massive amounts of new solar energy, this number keeps going up. It's the only number that ultimately matters -- and it's hard to BS.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fossil-fuel-production

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by tunesmith on Sunday August 07, 2022 @09:44PM (#32381692)
You gotta compare it to the counterfactual, don't you? Maybe it's not going up as steeply as it would've otherwise. Maybe it's not curving up as sharply. Maybe the models that project the degrees warming are more sophisticated than just whether the line is pointing up or down. In order to make a line start to go down, you gotta bend the curve first, and we have been doing that. There's a long way to go, but we haven't done nothing.
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by ZeroGravitas on Monday August 08, 2022 @06:26AM (#32383967)
This is a bit simplistic, the general plan is to slow growth and then reduce aiming for net zero around 2050.

There's plenty of science looking at those trajectories and arguing about if we are on schedule and what needs to be done to stick to the schedule and if its enough.

But its a bit more sophisticated than, if the line isn't going down today, we should just give up.

Another weird thing is that, it's fairly easy to make fossil fuels less carbon intense to eke them out a bit longer e.g. don't flare or leak raw methane which is much worse than the carbon you'd get from burning it. That's a good change that actually increases fossil fuel production and that we currently subsidize doing the opposite in the US.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by tsimionescu on Monday August 08, 2022 @02:59AM (#32383012)
One thing I'm looking at is the number of BEVs sold each year versus ICEVs. Sure, we're moving in a direction, but it's not fast enough to imagine the entire world will be using exclusively BEVs in 13 years - which is one of the requirements for 2.5 degrees. And I'm not even mentioning the fact that the trucking industry has no plans whatsoever to move to electrical any time soon, while the shipping and airplane industry have no such plans period.

Not to mention, we've recently seen things like Germany's Green government approving the construction of new coal-based power plants when they couldn't get enough gas from Russia, which really tells you how likely we are to move to renewables very quickly.

Most of the money going into renewables has been in addition to existing fossil fuel plants, so at best covering growth in energy demands. But to stop global warming at 2.5 degrees, we need a sharp decline in fossil fuel consumption, and that just isn't happening, not globally and not in most places in the world locally either.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by ZeroGravitas on Monday August 08, 2022 @12:12PM (#32387367)
> the trucking industry has no plans whatsoever to move to electrical any time soon, while the shipping and airplane industry have no such plans period.

Shipping industries plan:

https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/getting-to-zero-coalitio...

Aviation's plan:

https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/flynetzero/

Road freight's plan:

https://www.weforum.org/projects/decarbonizing-road-freight-...

https://clean-trucking.eu/

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by pcthrowaway on Sunday August 07, 2022 @09:08PM (#32381485)
> Not to mention, we're taking about 2.5 degrees of warning by 2100. But the world didn't end there

To be fair, it might at the rate we're going

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by kurupt213 on Sunday August 07, 2022 @07:18PM (#32380874)
Nothing we do matters while China and India ramp up their emissions
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by ahmedalsudani on Sunday August 07, 2022 @07:24PM (#32380902)
The growth in developing economies is factored into the models, and they're both emitting way lower than we do in the US and Canada per capita.

In India's case it's silly to make a comparison.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by LorenPechtel on Sunday August 07, 2022 @11:19PM (#32382129)
Note that if we impose a carbon tax we just drive a lot of energy-intensive industry offshore. China and India very much do matter. I think we might be able to handle this by applying the tax to imports. As a rough model, look at the value of the import as a % of their GDP, it's taxed that % of their total carbon emission, credit for any foreign carbon tax already paid.
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by ahmedalsudani on Monday August 08, 2022 @01:08AM (#32382530)
Absolutely. There will need to be treaties and a method to account for the carbon cost even when something is produced abroad if we are to achieve aggregate reductions.

Unfortunately things look grim when you look at the state of international relations. It doesn't feel like we'll see progress on international carbon pricing anytime soon.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by mathverse on Monday August 08, 2022 @06:31AM (#32383991)
Nothing of this sort will be done because it would effectively block the access of those privileged enough to care about carbon taxes to the markets of those that cant really afford it.

Carbon taxes are irrational and not a viable alternative.

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by ahmedalsudani on Monday August 08, 2022 @06:42PM (#32392049)
It's hard to keep an optimistic and creative imagination when the status quo is as bad as it is, but don't let the present malaise limit your horizons. There is more than one way out.
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by imtringued on Monday August 08, 2022 @07:08AM (#32384202)
Then nothing is rational.
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by SoftTalker on Sunday August 07, 2022 @08:52PM (#32381396)
Per capita means nothing. Total tonnage of carbon is all that matters.
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by ClumsyPilot on Sunday August 07, 2022 @09:37PM (#32381656)
So when will US reduce total tonnage to match Vatican City? Is US and iceland going to have same carbon budget?
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by tzs on Sunday August 07, 2022 @10:20PM (#32381859)
Total tonnage is all that matters when it comes to how much warming we will get. But when it comes to deciding how to limit the total to under that amount we have to come up with a limit for each country.

Why by country? Because that is how we've split the world up for regulating.

When deciding each country's share of that allowed global tonnage, per capita does matter. Other allocations, such as equal amounts per country, lead to absurd outcomes. Here's a comment giving an example [1].

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31935567

Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by max51 on Monday August 08, 2022 @12:06AM (#32382309)
why would being born with the right passport allows you to pollute 5x more with impunity? the planet doesn't give a crap about our made up borders. What makes Europeans/Americans individuals so special that they get to consume wayyyyyy more than the rest of the planet?
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by tsimionescu on Monday August 08, 2022 @03:41AM (#32383191)
If anything, Europe and the USA and Russia should get way less carbon credits per capita, since they've had a massive headstart at consuming fossil fuels compared to the rest of the world, which should really be priced in somehow if we're talking about fairness.
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by kurupt213 on Monday August 08, 2022 @06:16PM (#32391784)
The carbon footprint of the major economies is shrinking, and given the technological development since the dawn of the industrial revolution, there is no reason for emerging economies to have the same emissions profile as they ramp up.
Re:Carbon offsetting is just another form of greenwashing by tsimionescu on Tuesday August 09, 2022 @02:45AM (#32394925)
Their carbon footprint is shrinking, but it's still higher per capita then most other countries in the world except China (or, for the USA and Germany, including China).

And, while progress has been made, fossil fuels are still by far the cheapest source of energy around, especially if you don't have great expertise. So, in principle, we should be letting the developing nations of the world use much more fossil fuels to power their economies, while those that have been using it for centuries at this point should use far less.

Note that I'm not actually advocating for this, as stopping global warming is far more important than some abstract notion of historical fairness in international politics, which is even more idealistic than world peace.