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A comment on XKCD's Randall Munroe runs Monte Carlo on Intrade's per-state markets .

Re:XKCD's Randall Munroe runs Monte Carlo on Intrade's per-s... by davidmathers on Saturday October 04, 2008 @07:03PM (#323705)
I just downloaded Randall's code and modified it to match my analysis, which is: there are only 3 states that matter (FL, OH, CO) and if McCain wins all 3 then McCain wins but if Obama wins any one of them then Obama wins.

Here's what I got: Obama 94.6%, McCain 5.4%

Assuming my analysis is right, am I doing anything wrong mathematically?

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Re:XKCD's Randall Munroe runs Monte Carlo on Intrade's per-s... by chairface on Saturday October 04, 2008 @11:23PM (#323811)
Am I correct that CO is one of those states that can divide their electoral votes between candidates, and if so, did you take this into account?
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Re:XKCD's Randall Munroe runs Monte Carlo on Intrade's per-s... by evgen on Sunday October 05, 2008 @12:05AM (#323838)
Nope. Maine and Nebraska are the two that do this.
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