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Re:US regulators will certify first small nuclear reactor de... by otikik on Saturday July 30, 2022 @06:03PM (#32290809)
The world is a very complex system and it is of course logical that people will not be completely accurate in their numbers and dates.

> the North Pole will be ice free by 2013

The tendency is unmissable if you look at the data[1]. People might have been wrong about the exact date at which it would happen, but you should not let the exactitude of the date distract you. It will eventually happen (unless something changes drastically).

And we honestly don't know how the weather will behave on an iceless Earth. Some people speculate that the arctic ice is a sort of heat shield. It makes some sense intuitively: all that white ice reflects a lot of heat back up. Once it is gone... the blue water will absorb and accumulate more heat.

> I also remember the dire predictions of acid rain, the ozone hole, and numerous other proclamations that stirred up the anti-capitalist faithful.

Everyone is starting to feel the change, it's no longer "just words". If you have not started yet you will start feeling it soon.

In my country (Spain), this summer we have had 3 heatwaves in a row, as well as two very unusual clouds of Sahara dust, the first of which reached Finland. I was born in the south of Spain, were's the hottest. When I was little the max summer temp used to be 41 degrees Celsius (105F). Now it's 47C(116F). Max temperatures have increased through the Iberian Peninsula, 41C is "the new normal" in all places except some coastal fortunates and some very northern regions. My options for escaping the summer heat are dwindling.

In the United States my understanding is that the most visible exponent is the extreme drought, in particular the water levels in the Colorado river basin seems worrisome. You might find more information about where you live in [2].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_sea_ice_decline

[2] https://www.drought.gov

Re:US regulators will certify first small nuclear reactor de... by josephcsible on Sunday July 31, 2022 @12:26AM (#32293173)
> People might have been wrong about the exact date at which it would happen, but you should not let the exactitude of the date distract you.

Herbert W. Armstrong predicted that 1936 would be doomsday, and then that 1943 would be doomsday after 1936 came and went, and then that 1972 would be doomsday after 1943 came and went, and then that 1975 would be doomsday after 1972 came and went. How would you rebut that sentence if he said it in 1973 or 1974? Or if Harold Camping, who did basically exactly the same thing, said it? Why wouldn't that rebuttal apply equally to your use of it?

> Some people speculate that the arctic ice is a sort of heat shield. It makes some sense intuitively: all that white ice reflects a lot of heat back up.

But isn't the reason that the ice is at the poles that hardly any of the Sun's heat gets there?

Re:US regulators will certify first small nuclear reactor de... by rtpg on Sunday July 31, 2022 @02:12AM (#32293604)
I don’t know the numbers, the thought experiment on the last point:

Imagine that without ice the ambient temperature is 5 degrees C. And that the area being ice rather than dark colored rock causes a drop of about 10 degrees C.

So the ambient temperature in the area is under 0. But as it melts for reasons then this cooling effects disappears and now the thing is basically gone forever.

Not commenting too much on the actual theory but you could easily imagine an ecosystem disappearing due to these kinds of changes

Re:US regulators will certify first small nuclear reactor de... by howenterprisey on Sunday July 31, 2022 @02:03AM (#32293570)
We aren't/weren't trending towards the doomsday mentioned in your examples in any measurable way. By contrast, climate trends are well-documented.