News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance E... by yuan43 on Thursday July 28, 2022 @04:00PM (#32269413)
Good point, thanks for the clarification. Worth noting that the role of arbiter of recessions for NBER only came into being in the 1960s, long after that incident. And 1947 marked the first year the US produced a quarterly GDP report.

This Twitter thread has details:

https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411779040419841

The comparison between an economy transitioning from war footing and one transitioning from pandemic footing might be relevant.

Re:US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance E... by dragonwriter on Thursday July 28, 2022 @05:39PM (#32270417)
> Worth noting that the role of arbiter of recessions for NBER only came into being in the 1960s, long after that incident.

So? The NBER business cycle dating work covers back into the 19th century, even if some of it was done retrospectively. If anything, the fact that it applied it's methodology this way to times when there could not possibly have been any policy impact to its decisions just further undermines the idea that exceptions to the 2-consecutive-down-quarter rule are about current political convenience.

> And 1947 marked the first year the US produced a quarterly GDP report.

NBER was doing income and product reports before the government did, the government actually directly was motivated by NBER’s prior work in starting to do them.