Re:US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance E...
by dragonwriter on Thursday July 28, 2022 @02:14PM
(#32268177)
> two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life.
No, it hasn't, and two of the last three NBER-identified recessions have not met that definition. It has always been multidimensional, it's just that historically the other factors have always [0] pointed toward recession with two down quarters, and sometimes also without. Having strong employment, etc., despite two down quarters in GDP is a historical aberration.
[0] EDIT: as another poster notes, not always—the 1947 non-recession being an example
No, it hasn't, and two of the last three NBER-identified recessions have not met that definition. It has always been multidimensional, it's just that historically the other factors have always [0] pointed toward recession with two down quarters, and sometimes also without. Having strong employment, etc., despite two down quarters in GDP is a historical aberration.
[0] EDIT: as another poster notes, not always—the 1947 non-recession being an example