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A comment on US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate). Parent comment

Re:US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance E... by tlogan on Thursday July 28, 2022 @09:58AM (#32264361)
In other words, if it looks like a recession and quacks like a recession then it might be a recession.

And yes it much more complicated - especially it also depends on how much outside pressure NEBR has. I think there is a large pressure not to declare recession since we still have a high inflation and feds needs to continue raising rates.

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Re:US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance E... by hotpotamus on Thursday July 28, 2022 @11:08AM (#32265380)
What if it looks like a bug and it sounds like a humming noise?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/employment-wages-...

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Re:US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance E... by selimthegrim on Thursday July 28, 2022 @02:25PM (#32268331)
That’s not what the Phantom Tollbooth told me.
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Re:US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance E... by zenithd on Thursday July 28, 2022 @10:14AM (#32264577)
the reason for the weirdness is that it doesn’t look like a recession in the labor market. Layoffs have been almost exclusively limited to tech, and within tech pre-profit or highly speculative (cryptoshovels) companies. This is important because in the US economic system labor power drives income drives inflation. (This isn’t true in all countries.)

When the employment outlook changes, and I expect it will, we will be in a traditional recession.

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Re:US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance E... by tlogan on Thursday July 28, 2022 @10:28AM (#32264778)
I was under impression that unemployment is a lagging indicator. The last thing employers want to do is let people go - they will try to cut here, cut there, stop hiring etc.
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