As if a war where one of the largest fossil fuel exporters, also exporting enormous amounts of foodstuffs, invaded the biggest exporter in some foodstuffs (grain, sunflower oil, etc.) and a pandemic with all the death, lowered economic activity and lockdowns have nothing to do with the current economic situation. Oil and gas prices are up, and they're a factor in pretty much every other product's price. Add in foodstuff shortages helping drive their prices even more. Some of the increases are profiteering, some are anticipation, some are cold hard math. "Free money" is only a part of it.
> Russia No one did really stop buying Russian exports, as we can see through RUB/USD YTD. Their exports actually grew.
> COVID, lockdowns It disrupted businesses and supply chains and still has a direct impact on inflation.
Having said that, I think it's about the contribution of each, and I believe all the quantitative easing and the fiscal spending plans may play a larger role on economic issues than many would like to admit.
Oil prices are high and have been climbing since a short-term bottom at the the start of the pandemic. Prices since february are not noteworthy.
Fossil fuel production seems to have peaked in 2018 or 2019 last I saw some charts.
Germany and Europe are shutting down coal and nuclear power plants, and this is having big and wide impact. Dependence on russian nat.gas, and thus the war (with gas prices), are just a few of the consequences. European energy price is raising the price of fertilizer, which is raising costs in agriculture, and so on.
But, for all that stimulus money to not cause inflation, world energy production would have had to double or 1.5x or something. But that's impossible.
True. So why did it make sense for USA to restrict oil pipeline build and reduce oil drilling permits in past 18 months? USA was energy independent a few years ago, and now POTUS asks Saudi Arabia and Venezuela for energy. This is a strange turn.
Because "Russia is going to do something stupid" wasn't on the radar then.
You're pushing a bad faith argument
“Citing a ‘lack of industry interest’ is nothing more than fantasy from an administration that shuns U.S. energy production,” she said in a statement to CBS News. “Cook Inlet is the sole source of the natural gas that more than 400,000 people in Southcentral Alaska — and significant military bases that are critical to our national security — depend on. I can say with full certainty, based on conversations as recently as last night, that Alaska’s industry does have interest in lease sales in Cook Inlet. To claim otherwise is simply false, not to mention stunningly short-sighted.”
https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/business/why-did-biden-...
Having that said, I do work in market research and gather purchase data and create inflation models for a living and to be honest things look really scary from the US to UK+EU and Latin America (which is used to high inflation though). Who knew all that free money from the last decade would do that!