Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

Re:Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon by marginalia_nu on Wednesday July 20, 2022 @04:13PM (#32171591)

A civil war isn't always a war by civilians.

Consider a scenario where the government is increasingly turned into a mexican standoff between completely entrenched branches of government. Supreme court is completely doing its own thing, the president starts abusing emergency powers to circumvent a ceaselessly filibustering congress and senate. Nothing gets done, and the country starts suffering from neglect and mismanagement.

It wouldn't be unheard of for a military coup to occur in such circumstances, in fact, it's a rough parallel to Julius Caesar's coup d'etat, which resulted in a civil war because some people didn't like the idea of having Caesar as a dictator and wanted to remain a republic, even if it was incredibly corrupt and dysfunctional.

Whether that is realistic today in the united states is another thing.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon by phkahler on Wednesday July 20, 2022 @04:26PM (#32171803)

>> Whether that is realistic today in the united states is another thing.

I didnt think a land war in Europe was a realistic thing in today's world, but here we are.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon by giardini on Wednesday July 20, 2022 @04:40PM (#32171999)

A question, a statement and a proposal:

- is your proposed "military coup" a "civil war"?

- This entire discussion is fruitless b/c no two of us have the same definition (or even a clear conception) of the term "civil war". And we have for reference only past civil wars (especially the USA's war between the states).

- We could speculate loosely using and poor surveys unleashed on the great unwashed masses (and us) by surveyors interested less in their agenda than in raw screen-clicks. Instead why not pass by this article, leaving it to dry up and blow away in the dessicating winds of e-space?

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon by marginalia_nu on Wednesday July 20, 2022 @08:10PM (#32174161)

I don't think there is a super well defined criteria for what's a civil war and what's a military coup and so on. Military coups can turn into civil wars (Caesar's coup is an example). Doesn't always happen, sometimes they fail (or succeed) so spectacularly that there isn't much of a war to follow.

I do agree that speculation is sort of pointless. I think circumstances may increase or decrease the likelihood of such an event, and circumstances look like they are more conducive to one now than in 1992, but I don't think you can say that when such-and-such happens, civil war is almost inevitable.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon by AnimalMuppet on Wednesday July 20, 2022 @04:33PM (#32171902)

I find the parallels to Caesar in a different way. Caesar took his army into Rome because he had been ordered to return to Rome without his army, at which point his political enemies would have destroyed him.

Trump is talking about running in 2024 because it's the only way he can escape being destroyed by January 6 and various related legal problems.

Now, Trump isn't a general of an army. Yes, he was commander in chief, but the army would (I presume) not have followed him to the extent of obeying illegal orders. But if Trump wins and gets increasingly legally cornered, he's going to try to find a way out, no matter what laws it breaks, and some of those ways are going to tear the country apart.

[ Parent | on HN ]