I don't think there is a super well defined criteria for what's a civil war and what's a military coup and so on. Military coups can turn into civil wars (Caesar's coup is an example). Doesn't always happen, sometimes they fail (or succeed) so spectacularly that there isn't much of a war to follow.

I do agree that speculation is sort of pointless. I think circumstances may increase or decrease the likelihood of such an event, and circumstances look like they are more conducive to one now than in 1992, but I don't think you can say that when such-and-such happens, civil war is almost inevitable.