Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by orlp on Monday July 18, 2022 @07:45PM (#32145615)

> Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.

This isn't arbitrage at all. That is taking advantage of a price difference of an asset between two markets by buying and reselling it (nearly) simultaneously. If you are holding the asset longer than strictly necessary it isn't (only) arbitrage.

Your intended action is just timing the market: buying stocks based on the belief they will soon rise in price.

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by rckrd on Monday July 18, 2022 @07:51PM (#32145665)

This is a classic merger arbitrage spread.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_arbitrage

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by shkkmo on Monday July 18, 2022 @07:56PM (#32145711)

How do you short "Elon Musk" stock? You can only short companies the acquirer owns, not the acquirer himself, so this does not count as "merger arbitrage" under the definition you linked.

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by tedunangst on Monday July 18, 2022 @08:00PM (#32145747)

This is a cash merger. You buy TWTR stock.

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[dead]

Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by robocat on Monday July 18, 2022 @09:14PM (#32146262)

> ninja edited

The Wikipedia article says “Last edited 1 year ago by GreenC bot”.

Making serious accusations is extremely bad behaviour - at least check your facts.

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by shkkmo on Tuesday July 19, 2022 @11:11PM (#32160937)

The comment was edited after I responded to it. I made no claims about the wikipedia article though I see how the 'it' in not clear.

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by tedunangst on Monday July 18, 2022 @08:45PM (#32146045)

I have edited nothing.

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by shkkmo on Tuesday July 19, 2022 @11:11PM (#32160939)

You edited your comment to change the link.

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by vpribish on Monday July 18, 2022 @09:26PM (#32146376)

the world of arbitrage calls this arbitrage. there are other, more pure, arbitrages - but this is very mainstream one. you are buying the stock at the market price, while you think it will be worth the offer price - there's a risk that it blows up. risk arbitrage. (not to be confused with garbitrage)

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by jdsully on Monday July 18, 2022 @07:51PM (#32145666)

It doesn’t need to be simultaneous, just be very low risk. Usually simultaneous execution is a factor in having low risk though, but some deals take longer.

An example is Bill Gates buying DOS from SCP. The deal making wasn’t instant but he still bought it for a certain profit as he had the contract with IBM.

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Re:Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model f... by mhh__ on Tuesday July 19, 2022 @12:37AM (#32147594)

Arbitrage is practically just a cooler way of saying making clever money the nerdier the trader is.

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