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Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by whatshisface on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @10:34AM (#32083333)
When they sell they're wanting money, an equal amount of money to the stock they're selling. That should make the dollar go up by the amount the stock went down.

(I don't really believe this, because it clearly does not describe the chart, but it makes sense and I want to understand why it doesn't work like that.)

Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by mrkstu on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @11:32AM (#32084098)
Because money is a notational bookkeeping exercise at this point in time and has been since the dollar went off the gold standard. It can't be affected by demand for things as small as stocks, but only its relative demand to other notational currencies.
Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by whatshisface on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @11:54AM (#32084424)
The total US stock market cap is $45T[1] and M2 is $20T[2]. Are you sure currency prices can't be influenced by the stock market?

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1277195/nyse-nasdaq-comp... [2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.h...

Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by mrkstu on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @12:06PM (#32084619)
I think that just furthers the point- there isn't enough 'money' in M2 to 'pay' for all the stocks in the stock market. Yet there that value sits and real estate is another 20+ trillion in land value.

In other words the actual 'money' is a transactional grease for the wheels of commerce- notational/bookkeeping mechanism.

The sale of Apple (the largest value stock in America) as a whole probably couldn't be accomplished in cash only, but even if it was, it'd be mostly notational numbers in an account somewhere and wouldn't 'flood the market' with dollars and crash the value of the currency.

Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by whatshisface on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @12:38PM (#32085091)
A change in preferences from holding dollar reserves to holding stocks could change the value of the USD, that's what I am saying.
Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by notahacker on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @01:52PM (#32086287)
Except that you've got a Federal Reserve actively ensuring that there aren't too many (or too few) dollars in circulation for the level of interest rate they want to maintain. They do it by buying and selling bonds rather than stocks, but the principle is the same. So we don't have to worry about shifts in portfolio preferences leading to an unexpected oversupply or undersupply of dollars

But more people wanting to hold AAPL instead of hold cash absolutely will reduce the amount of AAPL stock your $1k is able to buy, of course

Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by whatshisface on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @04:25PM (#32088305)
Maintaining an interest rate isn't the same as maintaining a fixed rate of CPI growth, especially not in the short run.
Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by notahacker on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @05:53PM (#32089228)
Sure, but we're not talking about fixing the rate of CPI growth (stock prices aren't a constituent part of that and don't have a fixed relationship with it).

We're talking about the effect of wealth holders wanting more of their investments in stocks or more of them in cash on the USD. An increase in demand for the liquidity of currency holdings, or an increase in demand for stocks due to perceived improved returns could affect the dollar through knockon effects on availability of credit, but the interest rate for that credit is the price of the bit the Fed fixes.

Re:Show HN: Inflation-adjusted stock charts – Total Real Ret... by mrkstu on Wednesday July 13, 2022 @12:48PM (#32085300)
Change in preferring the Yen or the Euro, maybe, but I've never read/seen anything that would reinforce the idea that the dollar would be weakened by preference for holding other assets whose values are ultimately figured by their worth _in dollars_.