When looking at TIPS and inflation expectations it looks like it's not quite self reinforcing yet.
This is what people seem to forget. Trade involves two items, so you gotta look at both sides of the trade (in this case credit+dollars vs goods). Dollar supply has increased dramatically since 2020, credit near free, while the supply of goods has decreased. Obviously that's a recipe for inflation.
Had dollars+credit decreased with the supply of goods instead, people selling goods would have trouble demanding more dollars. For hyperbole, if only 1 dollar existed, no one could sell something for more than 1 dollar, no matter the supply of goods. People might still try to demand more than 1 dollar for their goods, but trade with dollars would cease to happen until they reduced their demands to <= 1 dollar.
> This is what people seem to forget. Trade involves two items, so you gotta look at both sides of the trade (in this case credit+dollars vs goods). Dollar supply has increased dramatically since 2020, credit near free, while the supply of goods has decreased. Obviously that's a recipe for inflation.
I don't think anyone forgets this. The standard model says supply constrained + generous fiscal/monetary policy = inflation.
The parent post mentioned "money printing coming home to roost. Lots of folks say that isn’t what it is." I too seem to have encountered people saying the money printing is a non-factor, and it's just supply chain problems. In reality, both are factors.
There is this from Dalio who suggests money printer go brrr policies sank the Dutch and Brits: https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8
While all the fancy math is great for drawing geometric shapes, human intuition and basic arithmetic run the economy; human intuition for quantity has been evolving for millions of years whereas our fancy languages are only 5,000 years old (so says historians). We annotate our arithmetic operators differently for calculus and the rest of higher level math, but at the end of the day with only 13% of the adult public possessing an “advanced degree” most people make pretty basic arithmetical decisions.
Smart people used their education to get ahead but the rest of the world has caught up and caught on as <50% believe in higher powers now; elites are just people, not specials to be kowtowed by.
So what’s happened is again elites tried to form concrete agency habits into the masses (like religion did) but the masses agency does not concretely conform to rigid mathematical objects and the elites are now out of touch; either by stubbornness or age, they can’t handle they’re the ones losing ground all this time.
So they tinker with official math to keep us in line: https://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/27/business/job-insecurity-o...
So in the end economic policy was always politically motivated power consolidation for the elites, and the public, probably thanks to the meta awareness of our communities the internet provides, has caught onto the big picture game. Like Assange said; only the highly numerate will be able to see. I like to think it’s because such minds are not as swayed by cable group think.
So here we are saving like the Fed said and emotionally normalizing to a recession coming because that’s what we talk about, and so we’ll create a self fulfilling prophecy of it because like the number say, only 13% have an advanced degree; the masses will go along with Jerome Powell and the cable news channels telling them; stop spending, save, because a recession is coming. And stopping that simple arithmetic spending at scale will trigger a recession.
Subs will get cut to services. Services die off. What’s left is the new “real economy”, and off we go again. Conveniently not giving a toss about general public who got hurt while the elites look smart for getting us to believe they saw the future, and ignore that listening to them really just modified our economics behavior to make it all true.