I was wrong about the war, but I think my understanding of the situation has improved. My mistake was naivety. The naivety is gone now, and I think there is real chance of this war going global if the West keeps fuelling the conflict.
This war will continue unless the Ukrainian govt decides to sue for peace and enter negotiations with Russia. This war is really about Russia telling the US and NATO to go F themselves. Putin is done with those "b**ches."
The purpose of prolonging this war through military support is to draw Ukraine into the remit of the West as they will be indebted in one way or another to the West if they "win" this war. That part is already done. The question is whether a defeat of Russia will allow that to be realized.
Ukraine's best bet now is to get rid of the Zelensky regime and replace it with one ready to enter into negotiations. If the West will not enter the war directly then the war is lost as far is Ukraine is concerned.
If Ukraine starves Russia of ammo they win the war and HIMARS looks like it is doing exactly that.
Additionally every week that goes by is a week that Ukraine gets new weapons in the past couple weeks it was HIMARS in coming weeks it’ll be M270s and Gepards, and in the coming month/s it’ll be NASAMS.
It's not black and white anymore. I'm just a bystander but instead of looking for alternatives to deascalate, people here want Ukraine to "win" the war by any means necessary while they are probably comfortable and well fed at home.
First, the Americans warned everybody that Russia would attack on Feb 16 and they were widely mocked for it... for a week.
Second, there is no "settling". Ukraine could either be a puppet state with all its leaders, laws and policies decided and picked by Moscow, or it can be a normal country. This was never about Russia getting the Donbas and Crimea and you could not have assuaged Putin by giving him this. Sadly this will take a while, but Russia will lose this war the way they lost Afghanistan, Poland, Japan and countless other wars.