I think Android has a chance, but... not because of this. You can't base the success of an OS based on another OS not having good developer tools. Apple can release the restrictions on developing whenever they want to, and they WILL if they ever think that Android might gain more developers than their group.

And, not to belittle Google, but the iPhone apps are NOT something to laugh at. Many of them are insanely good, and it's incredibly easy to get them.