Feel free to read Stratfor's site (I named an extension that allows full free access) or George Friedman's "The Next 100 Years" book.

Stratfor employs many ex-US-intelligence-agency people who use the same geopolitical analysis methods for a corporate audience (though without classified data) and their views are a close approximation of the thinking of the US's intelligence community; in that sense, they are significant.

Friedman sometimes has some interesting takes but is often dramatically and laughably wrong. I would hesitate to take much of what they say as having much predictive accuracy at all.

They do state it with an air of authority and "high caliber top secret intelligence" but still laughable.

> close approximation of the thinking of the US's intelligence community; in that sense, they are significant

Which means in that sense it will be very likely ridicously wrong?!

If you post nonsense replies you are just disincentivizing anyone thoughtful from posting here.

To reply (though you were perfectly capable of this thought yourself):

Obviously; but it gives us a frame to understand geopolitical behavior by the US as it happens, and before it happens.

Edward Gibbon described “secret intrigues of the palace” (palace intrigue) as “those trifling but decisive causes which so often influence the fate of empires.” Stratfor is the Pentagon's palace intrigue (several steps removed).

If you've ever read Stratfor you know they expect, and plan for, the disintegration of Russia and China into smaller republics; and you can tell I don't believe in that.

It is merely an indication that the US likely now sees Germany as a second-rate ally, irrelevant to its geopolitical future; and therefore doesn't care about the sanctions' effect on Germany. That is the only reason I brought it up.

Well, "Fuck the EU", as Nuland famously proclaimed 8 years ago in Ukraine. As it stands, EU is being consistently and thoroughly fucked .

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

Just like simply eating at a McDonalds once doesn’t make me an expert on Burgers. . .

Similarly, holding the passport of a country doesn’t automatically make someone a geopolitical expert

I mean no offense at all, I’ve simply observed way too many instances of online discourse beginning with “as a citizen of ____” to establish credibility in areas that don’t really benefit from citizenship.

I kind of agree with you in a way: saying Poland will overtake Germany is as laughable as saying Canada will overtake the US as the economic leader in north America. You don't even need to be Canadian to know how ridiculous of a claim this is.

In my reading, the point of 'as a Pole' is to say 'look I bear no ill will towards Poles, I want the best for Poland as much as the next citizen', it's not claiming authority, it's disclaiming bias against.