News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. Parent comment

Re:FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast by beardedetim on Thursday June 30, 2022 @12:56PM (#31935312)
> If you only make enough enough predictions then some of those will turn out predict the future correctly.

If we have a coin and we say "It's 50% chance it lands heads" and it lands tails, were we wrong?

If we have a 20-sided die and we say "It has a 5% chance of landing on 20" and it lands on 20, were we wrong?

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast by GameOfFrowns on Thursday June 30, 2022 @01:09PM (#31935473)
Depends, is the coin a Democratic party establishment candidate and the predictor part of the liberal politico-media complex trying to prime an audience?
[ Parent | on HN ]