According to a quick Google search, bull markets also last four to six years on average. The current bull market has been going on for about thirteen years now.
I think our conventional wisdom is failing here because we have not considered that the voting preferences will rapidly change over the next 8 years. Of course, the massive buffer there to my theory is Millennials will be the ones inheriting the bulk of these assets over the same time frame. Perhaps they will decide generational wealth isn't so bad once it is in their accounts.
Gen Zs political lean has not softened as they age into their late 20s, as it did with Millennials and older.
Minus their elders, Gen X is not a powerful enough political force in another decade to avoid capitulating on new new deal type government. Gen X is pre Information Age, no where near as savvy and aware of how technological society works, raised by a still very God-headed society (the US recently just crossed a threshold of <50% believing in higher powers; was >80% around 2000).
Urban growth has seen fewer teens get a license. Pee wee leagues participation was down before covid, as parents worried about future health, and cratered due to covid. Some unis have ended early education programs due to low enrollment. Essential workers are not staying in essential jobs as long, as they’ve seen they’re just a target for abuse by people who can’t feed themselves. 80% of nurses are considering leaving the field as they’ve just seen Americans rely on them like a mother rather than care for themselves.
There are a lot of trends that are really interesting to see, and the big gorilla is a bunch of senile leaders like Feinstein who apparently forgets peoples names minutes after introductions, and others who can’t understand ideas that aren’t presented in folksy slang. American agency is a lot like her memory; giving way to something else.
The Democrats have now lost the Presidency twice in the last thirty years while winning the popular votes and are underrepresented in congress in comparison to the popular vote.
Most Americans disapprove of the recent Supreme Court ruling on abortion - even Republicans.
A quick search for generational boundaries put the consensus at around 1997, which would make the oldest 25 years old. I don't think there is any data to analyze about how their leanings will change. They've barely left college and during the most significant global crisis of most living people's lifetimes.
I'm Gen X, and went to public school in flyover country 30+ years ago. I've never been in a classroom that didn't have a computer, or to a school that wasn't connected to the internet. I've still got a folder of old elementary school grade reports and standardized test outputs that are just dot matrix printouts from a server in the state capital.
When my older siblings were teenagers (35-40 years ago), a lot of the popular teen movies included scenes in which the protagonists connected to the internet from their home computer, usually in their own bedroom.
When my father was in college 50 years ago, he used networked computers to write statistics programs and submit them to a central server on campus for his psychology homework.
60+ years ago, my grandfather had a tech job in Silicon Valley. Houses were expensive back then, too.
Us old folks are perfectly at home in the Information Age. It's the Disinformation Age we're having trouble with. But I have a feeling that your generation is having a worse time of it; you just don't realize it yet.
I'll also note that what used to be "As Seen on TV" products are now marketed with Instagram-chic, so the shifting target of marketing is clear. I can't help but wonder if every generation hasn't seen the same since at least radio.
As for inheritance, you can almost make a certain bet that once the scope of transference starts to reach substantial proportions that the worlds governments will find novel and pervasive ways of garnishing taxes from such movements of wealth.
Where and how?
There was a bear market during the 2020 recession.
Exactly right. If you look at Yahoo news, you'll find several articles from 'experts' daily that predict either imminent doom or a sudden rise in stock prices. On the same day.
The great John Bogle said "Nobody knows nothing", meaning that nobody can predict where the market is going in the short term. (Long term, it's an up-and-right trend.) Your guess is absolutely as good as anyone else's.
"Bear markets: what they are, how long they last, and how to invest during them"
The market as a whole might bounce back, but that doesn't mean that a specific stock will.
I wouldn't be surprised if we're flat or down further 12-24 months from now.