Considering that commodities matter and Russia has them in spades, is run by (mostly) competent people (notice I didn't say moral or ethical) and has many friends outside the west, including the most populous countries, their economy is not collapsing any time soon.

As someone who was born in the Soviet Union, has Russian friends and family, and has been observing Russia for decades...

> is run by (mostly) competent people

Citation needed.

What would you say of Russia's overall trajectory from the late 1990s to present times by most any quantifiable value: economy, security (as in personal safety), opportunity, and so on? I'm not trying to be snarky or rhetorical, and am asking out of genuine curiosity. I'm sure you know what I'm referencing and this tends to give me a quite positive view of the competence of Russian leadership, but I'm also an outsider and am certain there are things I'm missing or not considering.

Once they run out of military hardware probably. Russian military doctrine has throughout ages been to throw massive amounts of human lives at the enemy, same is true for today. At some point however, without military hardware it will become absurd even for them.

Russians themselves have gotten used to consumer goods etc from the west, but they are mostly too afraid to rise up against or fight for Putin, who has most of modern russian state built around himself. So, no uprising from within probably.

Altogether if not the end of summer, then it's into very scary territory. Famine + energy prices - while Russia being unable to advance in Ukraine because of seasonal changes.

Why would running out of military hardware cause an economic collapse?