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Re:Monty Hall Problem by irthomasthomas on Thursday June 09, 2022 @02:17PM (#31684826)
I don't think he leaks information. He invites you to switch from a game with a 1-in-3 chance to a game with a 2-in-3 chance. If you stick, you are staying in the 1-in-3 game, but if you switch then you are changing to a 2-in-3 game. That's all there is to it.

Edit: I should have checked before I posted, obviously it's 2-in-3 when you switch. But it's same idea, you have better odds when you switch because then it's like you are entering a new game with only 2 doors.

Still hard to believe that Erdos wouldn't believe this. He spent his life couch surfing at other mathematicians but not could convince him until he saw a monte-carlo simulation, apparently.

Re:Monty Hall Problem by crwilcox on Thursday June 09, 2022 @02:29PM (#31684998)
A common way to explain this is to increase the number of doors.

You have 100 doors, select one blindly, and have a 1% chance of being correct.

The host removes all but one other door. Do you stay with the door you chose, a random guess of 100, or the one remaining after the host has removed all others? A door that is now statistically much more likely to be the correct choice?

Re:Monty Hall Problem by irthomasthomas on Thursday June 09, 2022 @03:23PM (#31685629)
Good idea. That makes it extremely obvious. Hard to believe that Erdos didn't believe this until he did monte carlo simulations.
Re:Monty Hall Problem by jjbinx007 on Thursday June 09, 2022 @02:26PM (#31684958)
No, that's not right.

You need to read up on it more as it's clear you haven't truly understood the puzzle.

The host knows what's behind the doors so he'll always eliminate a wrong answer.

In the opening, you pick one door. That's a 1 in 3 chance of being right.

So there's a 2 in 3 chance it's in either of the two remaining doors. He simply eliminates a wrong answer.

Thus, 2 out of 3 times you win by switching. You win 1 in 3 times by staying with your original choice.

Re:Monty Hall Problem by dagenix on Thursday June 09, 2022 @02:22PM (#31684906)
If you switch, your odds of winning are 2/3.
Re:Monty Hall Problem by irthomasthomas on Thursday June 09, 2022 @03:15PM (#31685533)
Oh yes, thanks.