In practice the fairness of national elections are in doubt, but more importantly Erdogan willingness to leave office if he loses is the big unknown. Given that he has purged all institutions, including the army, to only have his people everywhere, what happens if he refuses could go from Trump "but at the end he still had to go because enough people kept their sanity" all the way to lukashenko "and then he stopped pretending there were elections".
Until Erdogan came to power, Turkey was arguably more democratic and more secular than the US. In recent decades whenever Turkey occasionally got a leader who began to act too Islamist or too dictatorial, the army would stage a coup, toss the rascal out, and restore democratic rule. This happened in 2016 but for the first time since Ataturk, the coup failed (badly!) and Erdogan emerged even more powerful. I worry for the future of Turkey.