As I understand it, it's geopoloticial. Japan, the country, is making a big bet on hydrogen. I may be getting the details wrong - but Japan is less independent under an EV transition; it makes them more dependent on foreign metals in order to produce cars; and they would be forced to compete with china (and likely lose) on those metals. Hydrogen doesn't have the same problem.

I think this is the case for both Japan, and the western world in general. Like OP has stated, in one of the replies below, Toyota isn't new to electric cars and they aren't stupid.

If current events are anything to go by, we shouldn't bet on energy resources of others. If we truly want a greener future, and the world itself to be in a better place, why should we make the same mistakes again?

I understand how common a "battery" is nowadays, and how great of a solution they might seem. After all, they are readily available.

But we shouldn't kid ourselves. Where do these materials come from? What conditions are those miners subject to? Is it really wise, to add that much weight to a body in motion, both in terms of safety, and energy efficiency? Wouldn't we enable authoritarian countries to strangle others again, by further rewarding favorable geographical locations? Or, further reward colonial powers, that have taken over Africa, again? I mean, Congo has 80% of cobalt resources (needed in high density batteries, LFH cobalt-free batteries have about 50% of the energy density found on their cobalt based counterparts, which means a low 0.16kWh/kg density) and China owns the majority of the mines there. Look up the Sicomines deal.

I know this post might sound cynical, and perverse. But really, I don't really think this is the way forward.

Toyota and Honda are big into hydrogen. I get the feeling that both have some reservations about lithium batteries. Given the diverse power programs of both companies, it might just be hedging their bets.

It always puzzled me that Toyota was one of the pioneers in Hybrid engines, but were very hesitant to offer full electric cars. They are very good at making money (yearly net income of 20-25 bln US§), so I would really be interested on what calculations they made their decision.

I'm in the same boat. I think they have made a very deliberate calculation and are one of the companies that has the data to make said calculation. I assume they aren't whimsical or stupid, so I would really like to know what Toyota is thinking.

Honda is a bit more understandable since airplanes look to be going to hydrogen and they make airplanes too, but not that much more really. I assume they have some very good reasons.

It's more likely to come through government somehow. I recall reading something weird about Japan telling auto makers which tech to explore, but I forget where.

Actually the opposite; Keidanren is a group of companies that lobbies heavily.