I feel the same way but it’s also worth remembering that while the first iPhone was a hit amongst early adopters, it didn’t really become ubiquitous until the 4 or 4S, which were also vastly superior devices which had a few years of iterations based on experience of early adopters. The same is true of the Apple Watch, which also blew away the competition on first release, and was still called a failure but was a sleeper hit, by itself a larger business than most of Apple’s competitors.

I expect Apple’s AR product to be functional, and dubbed a niche failure by the tech commentariat, but by 2026 really start to eat into the smartphone market.

Meta and Google are just less capable of making humane software, and while they may release slightly better devices from a technical perspective they’ll miss out on the light touch that such an immersive experience will require for normal people to feel comfortable with it.

I think the iPhone isn't the only possible comparison here. Sure, the iPhone blew minds, but what about the iPad? Apple Watch? Airpods? Apple TV? None of these are bad devices (in fact, they're all pretty solid) - they're just niche devices and limited in the way the iPhone wasn't/isn't. I'd expect the headset to be similar.

I do not share.your enthusiasm.

Apple buyers are not necessarily tech savvy (from a percentage perspective).

They use their high end phones for normal consumer things.

I have a hard time imagining what a normal person would want to do with VR/are glasses.

Showing your face in a Videochat? Not being able to show your face?

Playing games?

I would assume that there is still a lot of apple people not playing anything than casual games.

I'm not so sure. I think they will deliver something but I have a feeling that Meta is going to beat them to the punch as far as a productivity focused device is concerned. Meta might wind up with most of the market share while Apple trails them although I'm sure that most people who own a MacBook Pro will buy an Apple headset as well. I think this is more of a PC vs Mac situation than it is Android vs iPhone.

I would be shocked if Meta can convince the masses to buy their headset over Apple's. If Meta tries to beat Apple on price, their headset won't be very capable and won't be much different than what is already out there (which the masses aren't interested in). If they try to compete with Apple by releasing a similarly priced and similarly capable headset, Apple wins every time. I think you're underestimating how much people dislike Meta/Facebook/Zuck. And I'm not just referring to techies either. "Normal" people hate them too.

meta has the head start, but never bet against apple for revenue. VR is still new for casuals. if apple releases new hardware people will buy it and you'll see an explosion of devs creating apps for it.