I think Ray Dalio does a good job talking about the decline of the American empire, but I'm not sure his huge bets on the rise of China are well-placed. India also appears to have a good case for "next big empire" and it is often the case that when two world powers fight, they destroy each other. For example, the UK and Germany in WWII - the UK won the war, but ended up in huge financial trouble that caused its decline.

India and China had the highest GDP 250 years ago. So it is not surprising that they will grow back again.That necessarily does not mean USA people have to kill each other. There is enough room for global prosperity if only we have the patience and the right attitude. To start with - stop killing each other.

The problem is China's government supports just a monumental level of corruption and graft, and has been doing so by exploiting the "developing nation" growth boone.

But that only works once: its days of 7-8% GDP growth year over year[1] are behind it and not coming back. The CCP government seems somewhat aware of this - the social credit system, internet firewall and various other police state measures seem to be an effort to "pre-oppress" the population once the growth levels off (or flat lines entirely) since the implied social contract of China has always been "tomorrow is better then today" - and that's all going to stop once the graft and corruption eats the much lower GDP growth which a developed nation has.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-pr...

US was wiser than others because we were able to look at our mistakes and fix them admirably.

It's only a weak character who tries to demonize others in exchange for self-comforting. Sadly, I'm seeing more and more people doing that.

I agree with your second paragraph, but see no relation to the comment preceding it. Can you please expound?

With all due respect to you and Ray Dalio: Ray is examining patterns within a relative short timeframe and we can always expect a "this time is different" moment or we are in a radical shift in patterns, a black swan or whatever we like to call it. This is just an hypothesis: things follow a pattern until the pattern changes and we are living in an incredible moment when science and technology are accelerating and could solve many human problems that we see impossible now. US is in an incredible position if you compare it with other countries in the world.

US has a lot of issues but we can see it as a platform offering more chances to succeed than other (countries) platforms. You don't need the entire population to succeed, with only a few outliers (Google, Facebook, open Source, an NGO) you can structurally change US and the entire world. I don't want to sound positive about US but more negative about other countries in the world. You cannot take apart the military aspect (even after disastrous wars) the weapons are there in the US. A crisis is completely possible but the gap between the US and other countries is amazing AND US is a talent atractor.