My understanding is that the huge amount of corporate and household debt makes genuinely high interest rates quite untenable. Although I've just heard this, I don't have the expertise to make that claim myself.
What makes high rates “untenable” is exactly why they might ultimately be the only solution for a low-growth, high-inflation economy.
Re:RIP Good Times (2008)
by UncleOxidant on Thursday May 19, 2022 @08:38PM
(#31442037)
Don't forget government debt.
A lot of crazy stuff that wouldn't pencil out without 0% (or near) rates went on for the last couple of years - and to some extent even prior to 2019. When you take away the punchbowl, as Buffett likes to say "we'll find out who's been swimming naked".
> Yes, inflation is high and that's concerning... This too shall pass.
We'll see how long this lasts. The stagflation that took hold in the 70s was difficult to get out of - it lasted for several years and was only finally killed with extremely high interest rates. I think the markets are afraid of this kind of scenario and it's a bit self fulfilling as companies pull back.
Yes, this is a different kind of beast than we faced in '08, but some of it is because we kicked the can down the road back then. Add in the Ukraine war and the effects that will have on global food and energy prices as well as current political instability in many parts of the world - this isn't something we faced in '08. It has some hallmarks of the 70s stagflation (middle east oil embargos kind of analogous to some of what we're seeing now) as well as the .com crash (tech companies were on a tear during the pandemic) and some aspects of '08 (housing bubble). It all seems to add up to a nasty recession. Probably not as bad as the '08 recession, but probably worse than the .com crash recession which wasn't much felt outside of tech - tech is a bigger part of the economy now so tech companies pulling back will be more widely felt.