There's no need to worry, the shortage of programmers will take care of itself. As programmers get more scarce their price will rise, and eventually people will notice and will be encouraged to move into programming (just like what happened during the dot com era). If there's another shake out then the market will weed out the worst programmers and the cycle will start again.

There's enough programming for both high priced productive programmers, and H1B and outsourcing to go round. There's not a finite amount of programming to do, it grows each year as more and more companies decide to get a better website, people decide to socialise on the web more etc.

Frameworks and libraries such as ASP/NET/Prototype/ROR/Catalyst/Web.py and co are making programmers more productive too, which increases what they can deliver for a given amount of money.

The high price of software development will also encourage more startups like Wufoo who can offer forms on the web for a fraction of the cost of custom development.

a) Completing a CS degree does not a programmer make.

b) Geek/boring stereotypes have never seemed overtly powerful in my experience, the worse perception is that CS is hard, and many college students don't like that word.

c) This problem is happening in all the sciences, and I think its mostly a numbers game. China and India (and Pakistan, and etc etc) just have a hell of a lot more people than the US does. As such they ought to have more people with a high apptitude for programming.

d) He uses .NET, ehh, I guess I don't really have a fourth point.

a) Completing a CS degree does not a programmer make.

Indeed the author seems to think that CS degree == vocational programming training. I think that's the problem with current CS degree programs.

But since most people DO think that, CS degree = programming job.

Cool article. I'm perplexed as to why it's going down, reasons given or not. It's such a cool, exciting space.

Actually my school gets a mention: " "There is some early evidence that an emphasis on interesting end-goals may help increase the enrollment of women in computer science courses: researchers at Georgia Tech have created an introductory programming course for non-CS majors that emphasizes the use of programming to manipulate digital media; the class is 2/3 female."

I can assure you that NO class at Georgia Tech is 2/3 female.

I suspect that most software development jobs are indeed unrewarding.

Pursuing your own startup is something else altogether. If you want to increase CS enrollment, focus more on startups.

I agree totally with your second point.

However I think (based on my CS experience) that most professors don't gear their curriculum towards startups b/c they themselves either dont understand or are not interested in startups. Many have not been outside the academic space enough to know what its about.. If they were into startups, they would probably be in the industry rather than teaching.

Unless of course they generated wealth and then came back to teach, I've seen that before..

Why bother with all that hard math if you can make $80k+ your first year after you get an associate degree in (for example) nuclear medicine.

Point I'm making is that US economy is turning into "services economy", while science/engineering/manufacturing is slowly drifting overseas.

There's hard math in computer science now?

The US is still primarily a farming and (high tech) manufacturing economy:

"Exports: $1.2 trillion Primarily soybeans, fruit, corn, industrial supplies, transistors, aircraft, motor vehicle parts, computers"

http://www.heritage.org/research/features/index/country.cfm?id=Unitedstates

It took me a pretty long time to get excited about engineering. It's kind of funny, because University really made me dislike education/learning so much that I had to go discover all the good stuff on my own.

In the article, I definitely agree that we need to get more young people excited about programming and other kinds of engineering (I've heard enrollment is dropping in these areas).

I think teachers should show Steve Wozniak interviews in middle schools and high schools. That to me is the true spirit of engineering. It would get kids excited about engineering and show them that it's not just about memorizing formulas and solving homework problems.

Are academics upset with this decline in CS enrollment? After all, those who have tenure presumably would not care and might indeed prefer teaching smaller classes.

Students might also prefer it as their peers would be genuinely interested in the subject, their classes would be smaller, and their employment opportunities would be better.

Companies like MS and Google will not outsource all of their development. So there will always be great jobs available.

I think if you told it in the right way, people would be fascinated to hear about the mating habits of flying mammals.