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A comment on Twitter CEO fires two top executives, freezes hiring. Parent comment

Re:Twitter CEO fires two top executives, freezes hiring by TechBro8615 on Friday May 13, 2022 @01:01AM (#31363528)
> The probability that Elon is margin called by year end is roughly 40% according to option prices.

This sounds like “two more weeks, MOASS, trust me bro” level of analysis. How can you possibly have enough insight into Musk’s financial holdings to make such an assertion? Nevermind the structure of the Twitter deal itself, which doesn’t exactly require him to fork over $40 billion in cash.

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Re:Twitter CEO fires two top executives, freezes hiring by rocqua on Friday May 13, 2022 @01:25AM (#31363662)
Musk has published his margin loans backed by tesla stock. Those come with a clear margin requirement iirc.

It is then easy to calculate 'at this price, the loan will face a margin call'. Options pricing implies a probability of a certain price being hit by a certain time. So they imply a probability of the margin loans Musk has getting a margin call.

Ofcourse, getting a margin call wouldn't mean the loan falls through. Guessing that would require deep insight into Musks personal financials.

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