Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
by logifail on Thursday May 12, 2022 @04:26PM
(#31359771)
> If the odds are obviously against you
Can you define "obviously"?
Spoiler, but for financial investments, there are no [genuine] odds. That's kind of my point about the efficient markets hypothesis.
For example, Tesla was at $88.60 on January 3, 2020. It's at $728 now (and peaked[?] at $1222-ish in November 2021].
Presumably there were not very many people who, in January 2020, thought Tesla would increase in value, or it wouldn't have been at $88.60 for very long.
Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing?
by noxer on Tuesday May 17, 2022 @05:44AM
(#31408081)
Roulette is an example where the odds are against you and its obvious. Your chance to win in statistically lower than 50% and it should be higher than 50%.
Can you define "obviously"?
Spoiler, but for financial investments, there are no [genuine] odds. That's kind of my point about the efficient markets hypothesis.
For example, Tesla was at $88.60 on January 3, 2020. It's at $728 now (and peaked[?] at $1222-ish in November 2021].
Presumably there were not very many people who, in January 2020, thought Tesla would increase in value, or it wouldn't have been at $88.60 for very long.