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Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing? by logifail on Thursday May 12, 2022 @02:58PM (#31358664)
> What real math is involved in predicting the stock market?

Given the apparently inability of active funds to routinely outperform passive funds[0], "not much" would be my response.

One could be really cynical and reduce it to: some people get lucky, some of the time. That's all.

[0] https://www.ft.com/content/06317e0e-b6bf-4fdc-9255-cf664cb92... ( https://archive.ph/NumMp )

Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing? by DeathArrow on Thursday May 12, 2022 @03:08PM (#31358808)
>Given the apparently inability of active funds to routinely outperform passive funds[0], "not much" would be my response.

Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigmas are just two examples of firms that constantly beat the market using math, algorithms and machine learning. It's doable, but not easy.

Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing? by Kranar on Thursday May 12, 2022 @03:24PM (#31359053)
It's silly to say Two Sigma consistently beat the market. They have multiple funds and only one of their numerous funds (Two Sigma Enhanced Compass) has managed to outperform the S&P 500 over a 5 year period, the rest have significantly underperformed.
Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing? by lbrito on Thursday May 12, 2022 @03:17PM (#31358950)
Until the day they don't.

This kind of thing is inherently un-provable. You can have a method that works stupidly well for decades, and then it stops working. Building a model that provenly (in the mathematical sense) works with X% efficiency would be akin to building a free energy device.

Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing? by nightski on Thursday May 12, 2022 @03:48PM (#31359358)
It's very likely you put your life on the line every day with things that can't be proven. That is engineering after all.
Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing? by logifail on Thursday May 12, 2022 @04:31PM (#31359817)
> your life on the line

Your life at 0.00000x% risk is one thing. I'm fairly relaxed about that.

Your capital at - say - 50% risk of total loss is another. I don't play that game.

Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing? by napoleon_thepig on Thursday May 12, 2022 @04:28PM (#31359784)
This is just... wrong, to put it mildly.

When it comes to serious financial modeling in big firms, everything from PDEs and stochastic calculus to cutting edge forecasting models and deep learning is fair game.

Re:Ask HN: Is anyone else glad the crypto market is crashing? by logifail on Thursday May 12, 2022 @04:36PM (#31359873)
> fair game

Ummm, not really. If it were readily predictable, then <ooops> it actually couldn't be predictable.

We simply can't all be making money all the time.