News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government by roenxi on Sunday May 01, 2022 @06:16AM (#31223702)
I'm saying that he's lending money to the people who write & interpret the rules, and those people do not intend to pay their creditors back in real terms. Indeed, they have probably crossed a practical threshold where they cannot pay back the real amount.

It doesn't matter what the rules say right now, his wealth is at risk. They can and do change the rules sometimes. They can change what the word "inflation" means. Maybe someone legislates that inflation is 1% now for paying back I-bonds, I dunno. This is risk, it could happen. Something is going to happen, the debt situation is unprecedented bad. Will that something affect these bonds? It is possible.

Re:I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government by chii on Sunday May 01, 2022 @07:24AM (#31224090)
The US gov't so far has enough credibility that they won't manipulate the inflation figures or change the law under you to cheat you of your money.

Of course it _could_ happen - nothing prevents it. And if they did, they'd have destroyed the credibility that took over a hundred years to create, and it would remove any future possibility of people lending money to the US gov't. A rational actor would not undertake this action, unless there's some good reason (such as nuclear war).

Re:I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government by unyttigfjelltol on Sunday May 01, 2022 @08:11AM (#31224383)
One only needs to peer into the sausage factory that is the Bureau of Labor Statistics[1] to see that a measure of inflation is a form of opinion whose credibility is entirely wrapped up with that of the speaker.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/historical-chan...

Re:I accidentally loaned all my money to the US government by roenxi on Sunday May 01, 2022 @10:12AM (#31225149)
> The US gov't so far has enough credibility that they won't manipulate the inflation figures or change the law under you to cheat you of your money.

It isn't a matter of credibility at this point, it is one of political realities. There hasn't been a plausible outcome where the debt principle gets paid back since the 1970s, but that turned out to be OK because they can keep rolling that over with new debt. Alright. Well now we're approaching debt levels where even paying back market interest rates is coming under pressure and probably going to give.

The risks here, much like the debt to GDP ratio, are starting to move off the charts. Lending the US government money can't possible be safe under these conditions. Someone here is obviously going to get screwed, some of these promises have to be broken. It could just as easily be these bonds as anything else.