There is a distinct element of the American psyche that focuses on anti-government suspicions, self determination, armed resistance, etc.

It’s part of our founding mythos and reinvents itself in all sorts of contexts.

Doesn’t mean it is at all realistic for our present circumstances. I don’t happen to think so. An increase in stochastic violence? Sure. Actual, organized civil war? No chance.

It is also a part of the family histories of many Americans. Many of them are descended from people who made the decision to flee 1000s of miles before things got really bad.

The January 6th event brought tensions to a high point, and caused many Americans on the liberal side to rethink how they approach those on the right. The event left many Americans fearful of a violent attempt to subvert the democratic process, with those on the right believing that their votes weren't counted.

With a paralyzed legislative body, tensions are likely to grow in the future as the government fails to deliver reforms that either side wants while simultaneously beating the drums on issues that both sides refuses to compromise on.

My optimistic take is that Jan 6th is actually the counterbalancing act that will lead to a less violent future.

Throughout much of 2020, both the dominant media narratives and political leaders of the Democrats were very supportive of violence during the BLM movement. Riots and looting were legitimized as "the voice of the unheard", threats of more violence if key court decisions didn't go the desired way were made by prominent leaders and were tolerated or encouraged by the mainstream media, corporate America essentially "gave in to the terrorists" and did anything necessary to avoid being targeted.

And then Jan 6th happened, and all of us on the left suddenly realized that the other side might start using violence to achieve their goals too. It was a scary wake-up call that maybe we should focus on peaceful progress within the existing democratic framework instead of the "boots on the street making demands" approach we had found so successful.

Without the encouragement and approval of violent means from senators and CNN anchors for months during the racial justice protests, there's no Jan 6th event. As long as the leaders go to a "no violence" messaging instead of a "violence is necessary and acceptable when these groups do it" I think we'll have a peaceful 2024.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_political....

It's not exactly a "narrative of the moment" or common talk. It's a hopeful fantasy of the right that is ever present, but seems to always burn brighter during tragic events or when democrats are in power (which to them, is a tragic event). It's incredibly ironic when you consider this is the same side that likes to call themselves patriots, but seem to always hope for a time when they could openly kill their fellow Americans.

>From a non-US perspective, it seems that a lot of Americans are quick to conclude that a civil war is around the corner, even on HN where one would hope for a more nuanced analysis. There can't be that many boogaloo boys on this forum, so I wonder how common this narrative is in the US at the moment to make it a go-to conclusion. Is it really common to hear talk of this in the US?

Ive stepped on a hornets nest in my comment quite negatively voted.

I too am a non-US perspective and 'boogaloo boys' aren't going to be a major factor at all.

>From what I see of human nature, most people are willing to accept a good deal of change and discomfort before they are willing to jeopardise their relatively stable & comfortable lives (relative compared to countries where you actually see armed uprisings, revolutions & civil war).

Never in my life have I seen polarization so bad. According to what I read the only ever time it was this bad was the first civil war.

You know what's weird. I predicted there would be self-immolations similar to arab spring and we are getting it. Black, incel, and environmentalist self-immolations in the USA. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/us/activist-s-self-immolation...

I even imagine as well. Lets say midterms happen and there's a clean sweep by the democrats. What happens?

How about the republicans sweep the election?

No it’s utter nonsense.

There are a lot of very angry conservatives who are getting angrier by the day. And they own the vast majority of the guns.

That cohort is still a numerical minority and while they may own the majority of civilian firearms, the United States government absolutely owns the majority of effective weapons. That said, calling the potential conflict a “domestic insurgency” is not much of a comfort compared to “civil war” even if the former is unlikely to be an existential threat to the country.

According to studies, it only takes 3.5% of a population revolting to foment a successful revolution. I'd argue we're approaching that figure. Might take a few more years, but I could see it in the US in our lifetimes.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35...

I’m skeptical. For one example - more than 3.5 percent of the Hong Kong population showed up for a single protest, but the leviathan power still prevailed.

They weren't armed.

Did you read your own source? It specifically calls out 3.5 percent nonviolent protest as 2x more effective than violent protest.

In any case, it is far more logically that a core of highly motivated protestors causes sudden political revolution because they represent the unrealized/unstated preferences of a popular majority. I don’t believe this is likely in this situation as that cohort’s displeasure is largely due to mass culture (and associated forms of economic, social influence) moving further and further away from them.