That’s an interesting comparison, since that’s basically the game commodities traders are playing. Guess the price of oil (of this specific type for delivery at this specific place and time that generally - but not necessarily - align with an idealized “price of oil).

I suspect deep understanding and clever interpretations of those specifics in crypto will be rewarded. Though crypto has the added excitement that, as here, poor understanding and interpretation result not just in loss of value but it’s destruction!