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Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by McLaren_Ferrari on Saturday April 23, 2022 @04:51PM (#31138412)
> important product

Sure in Bel Air is really important to own a Tesla, just like (if not more) than the car brands mentioned in my handle...

> substantial real revenues

How much of that is credits?

> growing at a remarkable rate

A company incorporated 20 years ago growing at a remarkable rate either implies incompetence in its administration up to now, or a dishonest scheme put in place to artificially simulate "a remarkable rate of growth" right now.

Companies with similar access to talent and capital simply came to dominate their industry in the same timeframe (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Salesforce, Intel, HP...)

Globally speaking what % of cars sold are Teslas? 1 or 2 % ? Tesla and Musk dominate the newscycle of the financial press, the tabloids and the blogsphere but out there, in the real world they are essentially nonexistent. It seems like the dictionary definition of an influencer to me.

Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by mwint on Saturday April 23, 2022 @07:31PM (#31139734)
Lol, the regulatory credit thing again. Here are the Q1 numbers [0]:

- Total revenue: $18,756M

- Gross profit: $5,460M

- Total regulatory credits: $679M

So to answer your question, about 4% of their revenue is credits. It’s been tiny compared to automotive revenue for at least a year. So we can stop perpetuating that little myth.

0: https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/IOSHZZ_TSLA_Q1_2022_Updat...

Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by reducesuffering on Saturday April 23, 2022 @07:25PM (#31139684)
Tesla is shipping 1.2m cars / year and just finished two ginormous state of the art factories in Giga Berlin and Austin, that will end up doubling that. There is so much demand for these autos, outside of Bel Air, that it currently takes 8 months for a Model Y order today to arrive, even though the current factories are producing full capacity. Why are you so hung up about credits from last year?
Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by McLaren_Ferrari on Saturday April 23, 2022 @07:49PM (#31139855)
Every year 78M cars are sold in the entire world.[0]

1.2M is about 1% of that. This company gets the press of Apple, Microsoft or Google (it's even more than that, it's really a cult), and it peaked at a valuation similar to such companies which have total dominance in their respective markets (Microsoft also got in trouble because the dominance was achieved too soon and without having to lobby D.C. on the way there)

Tesla market share essentially amounts to nothing. People who are able to reason can understand that when the discrepancy between financial/press clout and presence in the real world is so big, there is either something broken in markets or fraud on a big scale.

Fraud was already uncovered at Tesla and the company and its CEO are constantly battling lawsuits.

It's an exercise in stock promotion more than a car company, the price of the stock is the only KPI that matters at Tesla, much like the approval rating is the only KPI that matters in the WH.

Like Trump, Musk found that it's more effective for his wallet to focus all his efforts on pumping that KPI via cult of personality as opposed to doing a good job at layer zero and let the KPI fall wherever it may.

[0] https://policyadvice.net/insurance/insights/us-auto-sales-st...

Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by reducesuffering on Saturday April 23, 2022 @08:13PM (#31139996)
You are confusing the past for what the future is going to be. We are heading into an EV sales only future in most developed economies by 2040. Already, Tesla Model 3 is the best selling luxury car in the US, Model Y production has just been ramping up to soon overtake crossover/SUV, and these are making money hand over fist so they are only focusing on this upper market while they’re production constrained. As soon as production ramps up they’ll start cutting into economy car markets just like they did luxury, and you’ll see 10m out of those 78m TAM. Meanwhile, they no longer have any debt while most other car mfgs are servicing massive 10-100b ish debt piles.
Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by McLaren_Ferrari on Saturday April 23, 2022 @08:23PM (#31140060)
> You are confusing the past for what the future is going to be

Musk sued to gain control of Tesla in 2002.

He's been talking and rambling about the future™ for 20 years now. 20 years, all while pocketing billions of government money.

Now you are saying 2040, next year you'll say 2050, the year after that 2060.

In the meantime he's getting paid hundreds of billions of dollars right now, not in the future™. It's typical of cults to extract money from believers right now in order to compensate the cult leader for work that he will complete 30 or 40 years into the future™.

It's a scam. Amazon was built in 20 years and it also needed to deal with building factories in the real world, unions, logistics etc. Did so without govt. money and without constant pumps and equity raises. It's there selling 400B dollars worth of products every year.

The guy who built it stepped down and the company is still there because its so solid that it can stand alone now. You know as well as I that if Musk OD's on one of his drugs of choice the whole scheme would collapse because the cult only has a reason to exist as long as the cult leader is there to show the way forward ....into the future™

Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by reducesuffering on Saturday April 23, 2022 @08:40PM (#31140165)
> “It's there selling 400B dollars worth of products every year.”

Exactly. Tesla is selling $54b at 71% YoY revenue growth, while Amazon’s $470b is 22% growth.

Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by McLaren_Ferrari on Saturday April 23, 2022 @08:49PM (#31140217)
Also known as the difference between accomplishing something and talking about it.

Amazon has total domination in the enterprise cloud business and is the largest player in online retail.

But you know in the world of contraries , winning is a huge liability because it means you arrived at the end of the road, whereas failing to achieve more than 1.5% of market share in 20 years is a huge success because it allows people to daydream of infinite curves which go up & to the right forever after slouching for 20 years /s

If you are good, you are good from the get go.

Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by reducesuffering on Saturday April 23, 2022 @09:11PM (#31140332)
I'm just baffled you live in a world where Amazon with $400b sales is an example of achievement, but Tesla at $54b is an example of failure and cult. So does that make Nvidia ($27b), Visa and Mastercard (combined $43b), and Coca Cola ($39b) failures too?
Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by McLaren_Ferrari on Saturday April 23, 2022 @09:26PM (#31140421)
I measure companies success/failure like I measure humans' :

How many lives are gonna be disrupted if a company/human disappeared overnight? And how much the quality of life of the population is gonna go down the sink?

In each and every case as the companies you mentioned the answer is a lot on both counts.

Tesla, Porsche (35B) , the brands I have in my handle (Ferrari , McLaren) , Lamborghini, Gulfstream, Bombardier, Gucci, Sea-Ray....the answer is: not a much on both counts for all of them.

Nobody cries for the toys of the rich, not even the rich because they can easily pivot towards other toys

Re:Elon Musk texts Larry Page about investing in Tesla (2018) by pedalpete on Saturday April 23, 2022 @08:23PM (#31140063)
The stock doesn't need to trade on market share. Look at profits. Real $$ and growth of those real $$.

$17B in Q1. With 80% YoY growth, and new factories able to supply the growing demand, it is within reason to expect $30B profit in Q4 (or Q1 2022 if you'd prefer). They are trading at 10x multiple on annual PROFIT.

Toyota's profit last quarter was $6.8B with a market cap of $280B, and not growing. So they have annual profit of $28B, also trading at 10x multiple on annual profit.

Makes tesla look like a good buy to me.