Re:The gambler's fallacy is not a fallacy?
by r3trohack3r on Wednesday April 13, 2022 @08:55PM
(#31022199)
Given a fair coin:
The odds of getting 12 Heads in a row is quite low.
The odds of getting 12 Heads in a row when you’ve already observed 11 coin flips land heads up is 50%.
Knowing that the odds of 12 Heads in a row is low, that you’ve seen 11 Heads in a row, and that - if you observe the next flip land heads up - you’ll have observed something quite rare, doesn’t influence the next coin flip.
The odds of getting 12 Heads in a row is quite low.
The odds of getting 12 Heads in a row when you’ve already observed 11 coin flips land heads up is 50%.
Knowing that the odds of 12 Heads in a row is low, that you’ve seen 11 Heads in a row, and that - if you observe the next flip land heads up - you’ll have observed something quite rare, doesn’t influence the next coin flip.