Re:Covid is becoming increasingly vaccine enabled
by gus_massa on Monday April 11, 2022 @07:45AM
(#30987374)
Death with covid-19 should add the same percent to both groups. Been optimistic and biased, if the number of death due to covid-19 for unvaccinated people is .2% and for vaccinated people is .02% [1] If the unrelated death with covid-19 is .02% [3]then the raw data will show
total vaccinated: .02% + .02% = 0.04%
total unvaccinated: .2% + .02% = 0.2% (rounding to one significan digit)
The effect is that vaccines look less effective. I remember that someone was complaining about this because the number of hospitalizations with covid-19 of vaccinated people include people with a broken arm and no covid-19 symptoms.
Anyway, unless you make a massive double blind randomized controlled trial it's very difficult to separate death with covid-19 and death due to covid-19. But it is still useful to compare the numbers.
[1] Except in Peru, the number of death with covid-19 is less than 3000 per million, so let's assume death due to covid-19 is 2000 per million. Vaccines reduces the number of hospitalization x10, let's assume the same reduction applies to death. [3]
[2] The anual death rate is .7%, and everybody got delta or omicron, and it last like 2 weeks that is 1/26 of a year, so assuming independence, let's guess .7%/26 = .02%. [3]
[3] Both are very rough estimations. Don't assume they are too precise. They are just estimations to make the discussion more concrete.
total vaccinated: .02% + .02% = 0.04%
total unvaccinated: .2% + .02% = 0.2% (rounding to one significan digit)
The effect is that vaccines look less effective. I remember that someone was complaining about this because the number of hospitalizations with covid-19 of vaccinated people include people with a broken arm and no covid-19 symptoms.
Anyway, unless you make a massive double blind randomized controlled trial it's very difficult to separate death with covid-19 and death due to covid-19. But it is still useful to compare the numbers.
[1] Except in Peru, the number of death with covid-19 is less than 3000 per million, so let's assume death due to covid-19 is 2000 per million. Vaccines reduces the number of hospitalization x10, let's assume the same reduction applies to death. [3]
[2] The anual death rate is .7%, and everybody got delta or omicron, and it last like 2 weeks that is 1/26 of a year, so assuming independence, let's guess .7%/26 = .02%. [3]
[3] Both are very rough estimations. Don't assume they are too precise. They are just estimations to make the discussion more concrete.