People who 'know what they are talking about' are quite often so buried in details they lose sight of possible futures. On the other hand idealists often simplify to the point of nonsense. The truth is usually somewhere in between. For example, in the case of his bicycle post, efficiency is almost irrelevant except for sports cyclists - the increasing number of people using electric-assisted bikes could well do without a chain and it's limitations, maintenance, etc. They want to get from A-B, while doing some exercise (but not too much).