A key attribute of those analysis is the interest rates for financing, which used to be near zero - and likely will not be for quite awhile, but good luck predicting that.
It will stay at 0% or go lower. Since when did Germany stop exporting? Since when did Germans stop saving? In fact, it gets easier to save with lower interest rates because it means people don't have to pay interest to the rich. 0% debt is much easier to pay off than debt that is growing exponentially at 10% per year.
I honestly think using interest rates as a throttle is a stupid idea. It would be more logical to introduce a minimum yearly payment to principal ratio and let the central banks control that instead, it would most likely be at 3% during normal times and 6% during inflationary times. Paying interest doesn't reduce the money supply only paying off the principal reduces the money supply and inflation. Raising interest rates is actually an ugly hack to create a recession which then reduces demand for loans. If people borrow anyway, like when a government borrows to service interest, it will actually feed itself and inflation will get worse than if the government lowered interest rates and just paid off the principal to reduce the money supply. When you look at Turkey they are forcibly lowering interest rates but not paying off their debt which is weird as hell, an increased minimum payment would be more effective at removing inflation.
If you take this further and introduce a debt brake or austerity, you will most likely get deflation which then means the interest rate must be negative to avoid a recession.
Interest rates are supposed to cover the lender by compensating them more than they lose by writing the loan (due to things like the time value of the money, inflation losses, etc).
If no one pays interest worth writing the loan for (aka they get more money than they think they would lose at the end) then who is going to write it?
Maybe the gov’t as a policy thing? But ugh. Talk about a recipe for bad loans.
And if Germany writes themselves a bunch of Euro denominated loans for $20 trln worth of electrical equipment and infrastructure that would certainly bottleneck on a few, often foreign manufacturers? Then you’ll see that trade balance get weird quick.
For instance, for Germany to be self sufficient in the winter using electric heating, even if using high efficiency heat pumps, will require massive capex. Likely on the order of 7x all they’ve already spent on their entire electric grid.